My thesis has been that ECB QE and NIRPitrage would cause huge rallies in the US bear market. I expected a “herky jerky bear market.” But the technical signals from the cycle analysis screens of hundreds of US big cap stocks and ETFs are at the point where they could soon say that it may…
The market blasted upward from the bottom of the short term uptrend channel through resistance at 2010-2020 on Friday. It is on course to test the major downtrend line at 2032 on Monday. A breakout would put us on notice that the bear market could be over. That would depend on several things happening. Here…
Cycle screening data was mixed on Friday. The pattern of negative divergences in the aggregate measure as the market makes new highs in this move continued. But the numbers remain very strong overall.
There was very little change in cycle structures or projections on Friday. Some cycle projections have been hit. Others still point higher. Will the market party on?
Cycle screening data weakened on Monday, but the drop was modest. The aggregate indicator slipped to a new low for the past week, creating a downturn from a negative divergence versus the S&P. This would typically be a minor trend top pattern, but the number remains very strong.
Cycle screening data strengthened slightly on Friday. The aggregate indicator rose, but still not enough to clear the high set on February 22, maintaining a negative divergence versus the S&P. A down day now would complete a minor trend top pattern. Overall, 5 measures lost ground, an underlying non confirmation which bucked the aggregate number.
The market’s slight pullback on Friday left cycle projections still mostly pointed a little higher while time counts suggest that time has about run out on the rally.
Cycle screening measures were mixed with a slight tilt to the sell side on Friday. But the patterns say something else.
The stock market closed nearly unchanged on Friday. Here’s what it means in the current context.
Cycle screening measures surged along with the market averages on Friday. All 9 measures gained ground as did the aggregate measure. However, 6 of the 9 measures remained on the sell side on balance and the rebound in the aggregate measure left it still deep in negative territory. It sounds messy but the message was…