The market fell sharply in reaction to a weaker than expected (by everybody except us) nonfarm payrolls number. The 4 week cycle is now in a confirmed down phase. A 13 week cycle top was due in the February time slot, and indicators are on the verge of confirming. But a couple of last ditch…
Cycle screening measures strengthened on Friday but only 6 of the 9 measures gained. The aggregate measure made a new minor high versus earlier in the week, rising to slightly, but not materially, above the downtrend line connecting the minor peaks since last October.
The 4 week and 6-7 week cycle up phases finally exploded out of the gate after a couple of false starts. The question is which longer cycles are along for the ride. This report provides the answers and the benchmarks to watch.
Cycle screening measures blasted higher on Thursday and Friday. The aggregate measure crossed to the plus side on balance. Here’s what these numbers tell us about this rally.
The 13 week cycle has entered an up phase, joining the 4 week and 6-7 week cycles. The initial 4 week cycle upside projection has already been hit but that does not necessarily mean that the rally will immediately flame out. Here’s what to look for.
This appears to be a failed 4 week cycle upturn and an extended decline out of a failed 13 week cycle bottom. The earlier projections for the lows were hit. Crashes happen when bottoms fail to materialize where they should. Confidence collapses, which is then compounded by margin calls. As a result, there are new,…
Cycle screening measures were mixed at very weak overall levels on Friday. 5 of the 9 measures were weaker. Some new signal measures appear to be improving only because of normal decay in new sell signals as down phases mature, but so far there has been no increase in new buy signals, which is the…
Long term momentum has edged below 4 year lows and this may be a start to a secular decline, but the real test will be the trendline just below that connecting the last 6 lows.
Cycle screening measures tilted in the bears’ favor as 2015 came to an end.
6 month cycle momentum indicators on the SPX and QQQ have dropped to the sell side, signaling the probable top of that cycle, and possibly the onset of the second leg of the bear market to start 2016. Here’s what needs to happen.