Professional Edition

Where Did All The TLTRO Go?

We keep seeing reports that economic growth is breaking out in Europe. Wall Street in recent months has been touting “undervalued” European equities. Undervalued compared to what? The hysterical valuations in the US? None of this claptrap squares with the ECB’s monthly data on bank balance sheets. From that perspective, the European economy remains dead…

We Are Now Net Short But Watchful

Both 6 month and 10-12 month cycle indicators now suggest that the market is topping out. But there are caveats. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the complete market update, including the proprietary cycle screens report in pdf format. Not yet a subscriber? Try the Market Update Pro risk free for 90 days If,…

Market Setting Up For Top in July-August

The flattish uptrend has made it a tough environment for trading. Wave amplitude is likely to increase later this year, coincident with Fed balance sheet tightening. That increase in amplitude should be mostly to the downside. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the complete market update, including the proprietary cycle screens report in pdf…

Macro Liquidity Time Bomb Ticks Toward Zero

US macro liquidity has grown slowly over the past year.  Meanwhile, stock price inflation has surged, setting up a large divergence versus liquidity. It suggests that the market has become overextended due to excessive bullish sentiment. This is the mirror image of the oversold reading in February 2016. The difference today is that the Fed…