As central banks around the world print money and penalize it for staying home, demand for US Treasuries grows. That demand has met shrinking new supply. The meeting of less supply and artificially boosted demand has been an incendiary mix. In this report we see how Presidential politics and the US Treasury cash position could…
Negative rates in Europe and Japan and a growing maelstrom in Europe continue to drive foreign capital to the US. This has put the US bond market in a position to break out and possibly drive yields even lower. It has also driven a recurring bid for US stocks that shows up any time a…
This report looks at the long term charts and outlook for the 10 Year Treasury Note and the US Dollar.
Treasury supply increased in May, but not enough to knock the markets down. The massive money printing campaigns of the BoJ and ECB along with their negative interest rates drives capital to US markets, tilting the playing field against the bears.
The 10 year Treasury yield has rebounded to the top of its intermediate term trading range, while the US dollar has been in a test of major support. Here’s where the charts are pointing.
Except for a brief interlude at the end of this month, in terms of Treasury supply, the deck still looks stacked against the bears at least through June. However, Foreign Central Banks are turning negative again.
The deck looks stacked against the bears at least through June. Here are the particulars on why, and what to expect.
The 10 year Treasury yield has formed a double bottom in an attempt to end the downtrend, while the US dollar continues to weaken toward a test of major support.
The massive flow of tax collections causes the Treasury to pay down debt from now to mid May, putting cash back into the accounts of dealers and investors. At the same time, the Fed will be settling MBS purchases in mid month as usual. That can be an incendiary combo.