Liquidity Trader – US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Primary Dealer Positions Bulging, Bloated, and Overstuffed, Could Explode

Primary Dealer positions are record long, record leveraged, and record dangerous. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow…

Ticking Time Bomb In The Treasury Market Could Blow Up The World

The Treasury market will look very bullish for a little while. But the aftermath of the forces that look bullish now, will be terrible. Here’s why. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want…

Primary Dealer Positions Are a Black Cloud Over the Market

Dealer positions look scary. Here’s why, and what to do about it to protect yourself, AND take advantage! Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big…

Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader tracks and shows you the…

These Charts Show How Primary Dealers Create Huge Risk as They Get Longer and Longer the Bond Market

The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us…

Charts Show Increased Speculative Leverage Driving Rallies in Stocks and Bonds

Meanwhile, instead of liquidating other assets to raise the cash to buy new Treasury supply, dealers and other buyers have used up cash and added to their leverage. The rally has been pushed by a massive increase in leveraged speculation. This leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable. Here’s what to look for and how to trade…

Here’s Why Bonds Rallying Despite Burgeoning Supply is Bad News

The BLS reported a very weak jobs number this morning. Treasuries are rallying again. How the BLS got that number in the face of surge in withholding tax collections in February is a mystery, but the likely outcome isn’t. Here’s why it’s bad news for both bonds and stocks, along with  a recommendation what to…

This Chart Shows Why Dealer Positions Are a Catastrophe in the Making

The Primary Dealers are in trouble, demonstrably worse trouble than they were in just before the September 2008 stock market crash. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of…

Fed Chairman Chamberlain Appeases Wall Street To Gain Peace in Our Time

You’re probably dying to know what I think about the FOMC statement and Chairman Pow’s press conference today. OK, maybe not, but this report will tell you why you should not be misled by what went down today. Just as with Neville Chamberlain, this apparent abject surrender to Trump and Wall Street’s threats does not mean…