US Federal Revenues Investor Monthly

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers of the Federal Revenues Investor Monthly Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Real Time Tax Collection Data Shows US Economy Crashing

The growth rate of withholding taxes has been growing increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than four weeks. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that…

Federal Tax Collections Remain Near Stall Speed

The growth rate of withholding taxes was weak through December before a minor uptick at the end of the month. The year to year real growth rate is now around +0.5%. Here’s what it means for the markets. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money…

Withholding Tax Collections Rose This Week

Growth in withholding tax collections was slightly stronger in the last week. Here’s what it means to the stock and bond markets. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the…

The Most Important News Today – Treasury announces 69-Day Bill- The Clawback Begins

This is even more important than the FOMC announcement. Now that the debt limit deal is all but signed, sealed, and delivered, the Treasury will begin to claw back some of the $140 billion in cash it paid to dealers and other investors who held expiring 4 week bills, and maturing 2 year notes that were not rolled over since September 15,

Federal Withholding Tax Collections Are Plunging

Withholding tax collections have weakened in July, breaking down from the narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they had been in throughout the second quarter. The nominal growth rate declined to +2.4% this week, which is near or below zero growth in real terms, depending on what you believe the inflation rate to be.…