The growth rate of withholding taxes was weak through December before a minor uptick at the end of the month. The year to year real growth rate is now around +0.5%. Here’s what it means for the markets. You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.
The tax data, available in real time and not manipulated for infantile Big Media consumption and dissemination, indicates that the consensus estimate for nonfarm payrolls of +196,000 is far too low.
Growth in withholding tax collections was slightly stronger in the last week. Here’s what it means to the stock and bond markets.
This is even more important than the FOMC announcement. Now that the debt limit deal is all but signed, sealed, and delivered, the Treasury will begin to claw back some of the $140 billion in cash it paid to dealers and other investors who held expiring 4 week bills, and maturing 2 year notes that were not rolled over since September 15,
Even though a stopgap budget deal was passed this week that will expire on December 11, the countdown is still on for the Treasury to run out of cash as it bumps against the debt ceiling and has no more accounting tricks in its bag to avoid spending its cash. This week it cut the…
Withholding tax collections started to recede in late August and early September after a blockbuster month. Click here to learn what this signals for the market and economy.
Withholding tax collections have weakened in July, breaking down from the narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they had been in throughout the second quarter. The nominal growth rate declined to +2.4% this week, which is near or below zero growth in real terms, depending on what you believe the inflation rate to be.…