US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers to the weekly Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Egg Face- Withholding Collections Growth Drops To Zero

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 25, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, was essentially zero, putting the US economy on the verge of dropping into recession. It has been trending down since October, just not as badly as it had appeared. At the same time, the data still…

Collapsing Federal Revenues Through February 4 Show US In Deepening Recession

The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has grown increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than a month. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. Other data confirms. As reported here previously, withholding tax collections accurately foreshadowed a negative surprise…

On CNBC, The Numbers May Be Different, But the Tune Never Changes

This is an excerpt from the Pro Trader Weekly Federal Revenues Report. Federal Revenues Pro Trader subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format. One of the benefits of being aboard ship in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is that I don’t stay online watching the market all day. The…

Federal Tax Collections Remain Near Stall Speed

The growth rate of withholding taxes was weak through December before a minor uptick at the end of the month. The year to year real growth rate is now around +0.5%. Here’s what it means for the markets. You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.