Real time withholding tax collections had a meager gain in May, increasing by just 3.3% in nominal terms. Adjusting for the reported wage inflation for April of +2.5%, the indication is that the US economy barely grew at all in May. That’s no different than the low end of the growth range of the past…
Real time withholding tax collections have been strong since I last reported on April 24. The nominal annual growth rate is now 6.6%%. This has slightly broken a downtrend in these collections over the prior 7 months. But is that bullish? Click here to download report. This is part of a series of free Wall…
Real time withholding tax collections accelerated this week. The nominal annual growth rate rose to +4.7%. This has reached the limit of the downtrend in these collections over the past 7 months.
Real time withholding tax collection data showed slight year to year growth last week, but certain excise taxes suggest that the US economy continues the contraction that began a few months ago.
Real time withholding tax collection data rebounded in recent weeks and no longer show the US economy contracting. However, the trend of the growth rate remains down. The data has made lower highs and lower lows since last August. The full month’s data for March in both withholding and other Federal taxes is now in…
The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, March 24, adjusted for probable wage and salary inflation, remains negative in spite of an uptick last week. Here are the charts and data that show the direction of the US economy in real time, and what that means for the markets.
Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses of NIRP punished money yearning for yield, says the Statue of Liberty. Last week, subsidized by the Fed, it landed on US shores in droves. It put a bid under Treasuries and drove the stock market steamroller through a mountain of Treasury supply.
Real time withholding tax collection data continues to show the US economy contracting. But for the past 60 years there has been a reason why the market may not see that as a reason for prices to fall. Here’s why that is.
In addition to declining Federal withholding tax revenue declining through March 10, the just released Monthly Treasury Statement for February provides more evidence that the US economy is contracting.
The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, March 3, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, has turned negative. This shows that the US economy is now contracting. Other categories of the now complete collections data for February support this conclusion.