US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers to the weekly Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Weekly and Monthly Federal Tax Data Show Slight Pickup

Real time withholding tax collection data rebounded in recent weeks and no longer show the US economy contracting. However, the trend of the growth rate remains down. The data has made lower highs and lower lows since last August. The full month’s data for March in both withholding and other Federal taxes is now in…

Egg Face- Withholding Collections Growth Drops To Zero

The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 25, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, was essentially zero, putting the US economy on the verge of dropping into recession. It has been trending down since October, just not as badly as it had appeared. At the same time, the data still…

Collapsing Federal Revenues Through February 4 Show US In Deepening Recession

The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has grown increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than a month. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession. Other data confirms. As reported here previously, withholding tax collections accurately foreshadowed a negative surprise…