Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers to the weekly Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Here’s What Plunging Tax Collections Mean for the Markets

Tax collections fell slightly year to year in February. The IRS published new withholding schedules early in the month and employers began adjusting withholding tax collections. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you…

Federal Tax Collections Still Strong Enough to Keep Fed on Tightening Path Despite Market Selloff

Tax collections rose year to year in January, despite the tax cut taking effect. That means that US economic growth will continue to be hot enough to encourage the Fed to continue Quantitative Tightening and ignore market weakness. Here’s what you need to know. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of…

Federal Tax Collections Explode, Signaling Overheating Economy

Withholding and excise tax collections soared in December. There’s no recession on the horizon. This report explains why this isn’t bullish, and tells you what to expect. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if…

Current Tax Data Shows US Suddenly on the Brink of Recession

Withholding tax collections plunged in the second half of November. This not only broke the year long uptrend in withholding, but has established a downtrend. After adjusting for wage inflation, the year to year comparison is barely positive. It means that the US is barely hanging above recession. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity…

Strong Federal Tax Collections Mean That Strong Economic Data Will Keep Fed on Tightening Track

Strong federal tax collections for October and through early November will encourage the Fed to keep tightening. That’s bearish. Markets top out when the news is good because that’s when central banks pull the punchbowls. This is a classic repeating theme throughout the history of modern central banking. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity…

Lopsided Gains In Current Witholding Taxes Point to Lopsided Growth, Increased Risk

Withholding tax collections have continued to surge right up to this week, but other taxes are weakening. The pattern suggests that the highest earners are seeing outsized gains that skew the top line numbers while the bulk of the population stagnates. Here’s what that means for the market outlook. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The…