A bifurcated US economy will keep the top line economic data positive. Here’s why that’s important, and bearish.
Withholding and excise tax collections soared in December. There’s no recession on the horizon. This report explains why this isn’t bullish, and tells you what to expect.
Withholding tax collections plunged in the second half of November. This not only broke the year long uptrend in withholding, but has established a downtrend. After adjusting for wage inflation, the year to year comparison is barely positive. It means that the US is barely hanging above recession. Here’s what that means for monetary policy…
current data continues to reflect patchy growth. The top line numbers are strong, but there’s evidence of weakness in some areas. It appears that top income earners are paying a lot more taxes and skewing the totals. But they’re the investors, so these increases in income to some extent generate demand for stocks. At the…
Strong federal tax collections for October and through early November will encourage the Fed to keep tightening. That’s bearish. Markets top out when the news is good because that’s when central banks pull the punchbowls. This is a classic repeating theme throughout the history of modern central banking.
Withholding tax collections have continued to surge right up to this week, but other taxes are weakening. The pattern suggests that the highest earners are seeing outsized gains that skew the top line numbers while the bulk of the population stagnates. Here’s what that means for the market outlook.
Tax collections cooled in August after a strong July, but comparisons were misleading. Here’s why and what it means for the markets.
Data from the US Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement for July showed that tax collections were strong again. The lagging economic data releases should follow this path. Here’s what that means for traders.
It’s boom time again in America. The tax data for June tells us that animal spirits have returned. Data from the US Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement showed that taxes zoomed higher virtually across the board, after a weak start to the month.
This is a special report for all subscribers to Macro Liquidity, Federal Revenues and Treasury Pro Trader subscribers. Back on April 18, I wrote: By late this year the Fed may have begun to implement its proposed policy of “normalizing” the balance sheet. That’s a nice way of saying “shrinking” the balance sheet. To do…