Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Treasury Hoards Cash (Why?) As Tax Revenues Soar

Withholding tax collections weakened last week, which has implications for July nonfarm payrolls, but remained in the same narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they have been in since April. The Treasury continues to build and hold record levels of cash instead of increasing spending. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of…

Why Is US Treasury Hoarding Cash From Blockbuster Tax Collections?

The US Treasury continues to see strong growth in tax collections, but instead of reducing debt offerings commensurately it has been building an immense stash of cash. Does the government know something we don’t? Maybe. Two key line items in the month end totals from the Daily Treasury Statement have been slowing for the past…

Treasury Continues To Pile Up Cash, Withholding Taxes Stay Strong

Treasury Piles Up Cash

Withholding tax collections continued to grow at a strong pace through the period ended June 23. The annual growth rate has hit a plateau around +6% after accelerating for a couple months in the normal cyclical pattern. The peak of this cycle is due this month. So far, the pullback has been minimal. This has…

Tax Collection Bubble Rages On in June

Withholding tax collections continued to grow at a strong pace through the period ended June 10. The annual growth rate has hit a plateau around +6% after accelerating for a couple months in the normal 3-4 month cyclical pattern. The peak of this cycle is due this month. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is…

US Government Tax Collections and Cash Level Go From Strong To Stronger

Withholding tax collections grew a little faster over the past week. They have been modestly accelerating since early April, in what appears to be a muted but otherwise normal intermediate cycle. The peak of this cycle is due in June. There’s nothing in the data to indicate any shift in the trend of the US…

Fed Balance Sheet Review – Treasury Deposits Started Shrinking Last Week

The Treasury’s balance at the Fed has begun to decline from the record level it reached in early May as tax payments due on April 15 continued to be processed. The government is now spending the massive tax windfall. With tax demands now lower, the government’s spending should give the economic data a little bump…