Liquidity Trader – US Government Revenues

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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Federal Tax Receipts Continue Apace But Day of Reckoning Approaches on Debt

Growth in withholding tax collections continued to rebound in the second week of October.  The nominal annual growth rate rose to 5.6%. The steady strong growth of tax receipts is enabling the politicians to delay dealing with the debt ceiling, but the day of reckoning is coming. This report shows the data and reports what it…

Here’s What Happens When The Treasury Sheet Hits The Fan

Even though a stopgap budget deal was passed this week that will expire on December 11, the  countdown is still on for the Treasury to run out of cash as it bumps against the debt ceiling and has no more accounting tricks in its bag to avoid spending its cash. This week it cut the…

Federal Tax Revenues Fall But Treasury Cuts Debt Supply

Growth in withholding tax collections continued to recede in the third week of September. But instead of increasing its debt offerings, facing the debt ceiling the Treasury cut supply, and dipped into its record cash kitty instead. The negative implications are swirling around the drain and growing more serious by the week. Follow the money.…

Withholding Tax Collections Weaken, Setting Up Possible Double Barreled Crisis

Growth in withholding tax collections continued to recede in in the second week of September as the government facts another crisis over the debt ceiling. This report looks at the implications for the markets. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to…

Federal Withholding Tax Collections Bounced Back This Week- Here’s What To Expect

Withholding tax collections have recovered in August after a weak July. This is real time data, so it gives us a heads up on the lagging economic data releases for the month. Here’s what to look for. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually…

Withholding Taxes Bouncing Back In August

Withholding tax collections are bouncing back in August after a weak July. This week is the reference week for the BLS survey. Here’s what the current, real time tax collection means for the coming top line economic data and for the August nonfarm payrolls number, as well as for future Treasury supply. Follow the money. Find the…

Federal Withholding Tax Collections Are Plunging

Withholding tax collections have weakened in July, breaking down from the narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they had been in throughout the second quarter. The nominal growth rate declined to +2.4% this week, which is near or below zero growth in real terms, depending on what you believe the inflation rate to be.…