US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers to the weekly Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Blow Out Withholding Tax Collections

Note: This report was originally posted in the wrong category on Wednesday. It is part of the Federal Revenues Pro Trader Service, not the Macro Liquidity service. I apologize for the error! An extraordinary surge in withholding tax collections in April shows that employers have become completely delusional since the ascension of Don Trump as head…

Employers Are Always Last to Get the News

Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…

Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number…