Tax collections fell slightly year to year in February. The IRS published new withholding schedules early in the month and employers began adjusting withholding tax collections. Year to year comparisons for purposes of estimating the strength of the US economy will be questionable until January 2019 because it is all but impossible to accurately adjust…
The tax cut will increase the deficit substantially this year. It will goose the economy, but will also add to Treasury supply at the same time as the Fed is removing money from the system. Here’s what it means for your investments and trading.
Tax collections rose year to year in January, despite the tax cut taking effect. That means that US economic growth will continue to be hot enough to encourage the Fed to continue Quantitative Tightening and ignore market weakness. Here’s what you need to know.
A bifurcated US economy will keep the top line economic data positive. Here’s why that’s important, and bearish.
Withholding and excise tax collections soared in December. There’s no recession on the horizon. This report explains why this isn’t bullish, and tells you what to expect.
Withholding tax collections plunged in the second half of November. This not only broke the year long uptrend in withholding, but has established a downtrend. After adjusting for wage inflation, the year to year comparison is barely positive. It means that the US is barely hanging above recession. Here’s what that means for monetary policy…
current data continues to reflect patchy growth. The top line numbers are strong, but there’s evidence of weakness in some areas. It appears that top income earners are paying a lot more taxes and skewing the totals. But they’re the investors, so these increases in income to some extent generate demand for stocks. At the…
Strong federal tax collections for October and through early November will encourage the Fed to keep tightening. That’s bearish. Markets top out when the news is good because that’s when central banks pull the punchbowls. This is a classic repeating theme throughout the history of modern central banking.
Withholding tax collections have continued to surge right up to this week, but other taxes are weakening. The pattern suggests that the highest earners are seeing outsized gains that skew the top line numbers while the bulk of the population stagnates. Here’s what that means for the market outlook.
Tax collections cooled in August after a strong July, but comparisons were misleading. Here’s why and what it means for the markets.