US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report

Analysis of real time Federal revenues as they signal economic activity and likely changes in Treasury supply. Available to subscribers to the weekly Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Employers Are Always Last to Get the News

Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…

Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number…

Free Report- Current Federal Tax Collections Suggest A Bearish Economic Bounce

Real time withholding tax collections have been strong since I last reported on April 24. The nominal annual growth rate is now 6.6%%.  This has slightly broken a downtrend in these collections over the prior 7 months. But is that bullish? Click here to download report. This is part of a series of free Wall…