Tax collections surged in April on a massive gain in individual non-withheld income taxes. On the other hand, social security taxes, which weren’t impacted by tax law changes, showed no gain on an inflation adjusted basis. Here’s what that means for your investments.
Withholding tax collections continued their decline in the month ended April 30, reflecting the impact of the new tax law. As a result, we should continue to expect increases in Treasury supply to pound the market every month. Here’s how this works and what it means for the market.
The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) confirmed it in a report issued April 9. It projects massive and growing deficits for the next 8 years. That’s stimulative for the economy but bad news for the stock market, which the Treasury just goosed to the tune of $114 billion. Here’s the story, and why it’s ultimately bearish.
Withholding tax collections continued their decline in the month ended March 30, as employers adjusted their withholding to the new tax law. At the same time, excise tax collections are booming. Here’s why this is all bad news for the markets.
Tax collections fell slightly year to year in February. The IRS published new withholding schedules early in the month and employers began adjusting withholding tax collections. Year to year comparisons for purposes of estimating the strength of the US economy will be questionable until January 2019 because it is all but impossible to accurately adjust…
The tax cut will increase the deficit substantially this year. It will goose the economy, but will also add to Treasury supply at the same time as the Fed is removing money from the system. Here’s what it means for your investments and trading.
Tax collections rose year to year in January, despite the tax cut taking effect. That means that US economic growth will continue to be hot enough to encourage the Fed to continue Quantitative Tightening and ignore market weakness. Here’s what you need to know.
A bifurcated US economy will keep the top line economic data positive. Here’s why that’s important, and bearish.
Withholding and excise tax collections soared in December. There’s no recession on the horizon. This report explains why this isn’t bullish, and tells you what to expect.
Withholding tax collections plunged in the second half of November. This not only broke the year long uptrend in withholding, but has established a downtrend. After adjusting for wage inflation, the year to year comparison is barely positive. It means that the US is barely hanging above recession. Here’s what that means for monetary policy…