Treasury Supply and Demand Investor Monthly Report

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Available to subscribers to the weekly Treasury Supply and Demand Investor Monthly. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

TBAC Forecast Misses The Mark- More Treasury Supply To Flood Market

The Treasury rally and stock market rally stalled in August as massive new Treasury supply absorbed most available liquidity. The Treasury issued $126 billion in net new supply over the past 4 weeks. That’s at least part of the reason that the rallies in stock and prices stalled. Under the circumstances it’s surprising that prices…

More Central Bank Cash Versus Limited New Supply Inflates Securities Prices

As central banks around the world print money and penalize it for staying home, demand for US Treasuries grows. That demand has met shrinking new supply. The meeting of less supply and artificially boosted demand has been an incendiary mix. In this report we see how Presidential politics and the US Treasury cash position could…

Bears Can’t Catch A Break On The Liquidity Front

Negative rates in Europe and Japan and a growing maelstrom in Europe continue to drive foreign capital to the US. This has put the US bond market in a position to break out and possibly drive yields even lower. It has also driven a recurring bid for US stocks that shows up any time a…

Negative Supply and Demand Factors For Bonds Are Just As Bad For Stocks

Last week the Treasury cut back the supply of the 4 week bills to $55 billion from $60 billion. Today they just announced another cut, to $45 billion. As a result of continuing massive demand for short government paper, the 4 week bill rate broke down from its range and closed at 18 basis points…

Fed Plays Red Rover and Rolls Over

The Fed’s massive holdings of Treasuries acquired during QE began to mature this week. The Fed rolled over a wad of paper totaling nearly $32 billion. It will need to continue to buy that amount or more every two weeks to keep the market from being flooded with supply, which would depress not only Treasury…