Liquidity Trader Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, European banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

Withholding Tax Chart Belies Fed Fears, and Sends A Clear Warning To Bulls

Federal withholding tax collections went through the roof and excise taxes had solid gains in February. Here’s what this means for the economic data ahead, for the markets, and for your portfolio strategy. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and…

These Charts Show You Whether Fed’s Reversal Has Pre-Empted a Crash

The Fed announced at its January meeting that “they panicking” (apologies to Trading Places) and that neither rate increases nor the shrinkage of the balance sheet are on autopilot any longer. The Fed says it will adjust both as the economy and “financial conditions,” aka the stock market, dictate. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity…

This Chart Shows Why Dealer Positions Are a Catastrophe in the Making

The Primary Dealers are in trouble, demonstrably worse trouble than they were in just before the September 2008 stock market crash. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of…

January Tax Collections Make You Wonder Why Fed Panicked – Correction

CORRECTION: This morning I noticed an error in my reporting of the Federal Excise Tax collections in January. The error was borderline material relative to excise taxes. The annual growth rate was positive, and at the same rate as in December, but not at the rate I originally reported. The original chart as posted was correct.…

Fed Chairman Chamberlain Appeases Wall Street To Gain Peace in Our Time

You’re probably dying to know what I think about the FOMC statement and Chairman Pow’s press conference today. OK, maybe not, but this report will tell you why you should not be misled by what went down today. Just as with Neville Chamberlain, this apparent abject surrender to Trump and Wall Street’s threats does not mean…

Party Over – To Print Or Not To Print, That Is the Question Now

Thanks to the government shutdown (GSD) the Treasury had a few extra shekels lying around this month, and it used those to pay down T-bills. That cash flowed back into the accounts of dealers and investors who held the bills. Enough of them used that cash to buy stocks to foment a meltup. Now that the…

The Fed Sings A Sweet Tune – Here’s Why It Will Lead To Market Bitterness

Prior to the onset of QE in 2009, a normal reserve position meant tight reserves. There were virtually no excess reserves on the Fed’s balance sheet. That means that the drains will continue until the balance sheet reaches a tight reserve position. Except that that can’t happen because the markets and the economy would have…

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