Liquidity Trader Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, European banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

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June Federal Tax Data Already Showed that Econ Consensus Was Wrong

June Federal tax data showed that the market rationale for the rallies in stocks and bonds was just plain wrong. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the…

Primary Dealer Positions Are Off The Charts DANGEROUS

Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to…

We Knew the Treasury Paydowns Would Be Bullish, But What Now?

Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt, short term T-bills in particular. I said that the paydowns “will continue until the end of Q2. That’s bullish for bonds, and possibly for stocks.” Follow the money. Find the…

Short Term Positive Liquidity, Long Term Scary

The Composite Liquidity Indicator remains near a record extreme, and that’s scary. Here’s what you need to know. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big…

Federal Tax Collections Data for May Says Beware of Jobs Surprise

Federal tax collections data, including withholding taxes and excise taxes, suggest jobs and other economic data for May will surprise the market. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction…

Fed Balance Sheet Pressure Is Building But Camouflaged

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank sharply over the past 4 weeks. So it’s no surprise that the stock market rally sputtered. But what’s going on out of view could make things much worse later this year. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it…