US macro liquidity growth slowed over the past month. It has barely budged since August 10 of last year, actually slipping 0.2% since then. Here’s what that means for the market.
Regular bank reserve deposits, called “Other deposits held by depository institutions” rose by $239 billion in the January 4-February 8 period. Whoa. Where’d all that cash come from?
The ECB continues to buy €65 billion per month in bonds from European banks. But the European banking system is shrinking, not growing. That poses grave risks.
US macro liquidity growth slowed over the past month. In fact, it has barely budged since August, rising only 0.2% since then. In contrast, stock prices have risen 4.5% over the same period. Stocks look the most overbought they have been relative to macro liquidity since May of 2015. That was a good time to…
The Fed’s policy of “raising interest rates” by paying the banks a bigger subsidy is not a tightening. It’s just the opposite, and it’s going to show up in continuing, if not increasing, monetary growth.
The broad numbers on the European banking system didn’t get worse in November. But that doesn’t mean they got better. In the weak sister states along Western Europe’s rim the numbers got notably worse. Germany had a little bounce. Both loan growth and deposit growth in Germany are weak. France isn’t doing much better. It’s…
Multiple factors pushed US macro liquidity higher over the past month. Does that mean this is a new bull phase or the final manic phase of a bubble?
The Treasury’s cash account continues to grow on the Fed’s H41, weekly consolidated balance sheet. It hit $422 billion at the end of November. That’s a firebomb waiting to be thrown at the market in the event of a near certainty of a dead ceiling impasse coming in March. That’s when the deal to suspend…
The European banking collapse paused in October with a minor uptick in total deposits. In addition there was a massive, mysterious revision of the figures from earlier this year. But it doesn’t change the basic facts of how dangerous conditions there are for the US.
US macro liquidity was flat again in October. It’s the main reason bond yields are soaring, and also reason to believe that a stock market rally can’t be sustained for long. This report describes and illustrates the forces of broad liquidity that drive stock and bond prices.