Macro Liquidity Pro Trader

Analysis of the major forces of macro liquidity that drive markets. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Waiting For The Other Shoes To Drop

The Fed’s balance sheet and US banking indicators remain in the calm before the storm. Or to borrow another cliché, we’re waiting for the other shoes to drop. There are two of them. One will be when the Fed commences actual balance sheet reductions. The other will be when Congress raises the debt limit.  Those…

Where Did All The TLTRO Go?

We keep seeing reports that economic growth is breaking out in Europe. Wall Street in recent months has been touting “undervalued” European equities. Undervalued compared to what? The hysterical valuations in the US? None of this claptrap squares with the ECB’s monthly data on bank balance sheets. From that perspective, the European economy remains dead…

Macro Liquidity Time Bomb Ticks Toward Zero

US macro liquidity has grown slowly over the past year.  Meanwhile, stock price inflation has surged, setting up a large divergence versus liquidity. It suggests that the market has become overextended due to excessive bullish sentiment. This is the mirror image of the oversold reading in February 2016. The difference today is that the Fed…

Fed Gets Real With the Boa Constrictor Approach to Tightening

This is a special report for all subscribers to Macro Liquidity, Federal Revenues and Treasury Pro Trader subscribers.  Back on April 18, I wrote: By late this year the Fed may have begun to implement its proposed policy of “normalizing” the balance sheet. That’s a nice way of saying “shrinking” the balance sheet. To do…