The 10 year Treasury yield has pulled back, keeping the downtrend intact, and the US dollar index continues to consolidate after a massive rise. Here’s what’s likely to come next.
Last week’s summary commentary continues to apply. The market faces heavy Treasury supply with no help from the Fed at the turn of the month, but then the help it gets from the Fed at mid month from the Fed’s MBS purchase settlements will be augmented by the ECB beginning its purchases. To what extent…
I continue to have my doubts that the Fed will be able to materially influence money market rates where there’s $2.7 trillion in excess cash sloshing around in US banks. The Fed has a notion that when it increases the interest rate it pays the banks, thereby increasing their cash flow and profits and lowering…
The 10 year Treasury yield has broken out of a downtrend and the US dollar index is consolidating after a massive rise. Here’s what to look for next.
The Federal Government’s withholding tax collections remained extremely strong last week with the highest annual growth rate since last September.
The composite liquidity indicator was level on the latest weekly data, holding near the latest new high and keeping the trend amazingly on much the same straight line it has been on for the past year. US stock prices have tracked this line.
Investment funds have for the first time overtaken Primary Dealers as the largest buyers of Treasury supply. In this business the funds are the public—the dumb money—so to speak.