US macro liquidity growth slowed over the past month. It has barely budged since August 10 of last year, actually slipping 0.2% since then. Here’s what that means for the market.
Regular bank reserve deposits, called “Other deposits held by depository institutions” rose by $239 billion in the January 4-February 8 period. Whoa. Where’d all that cash come from?
The proposition that the Treasury market is supported by deep and robust demand isn’t supported by the data that we watch. Demand has been in a secular downtrend since 2010.
When the Obama Administration built up a $400 billion pile of cash, it wasn’t expecting to hand it over to Donald J. Trump.
Federal withholding tax collections were up strongly in January, but that abruptly reversed over the past couple of days. Other tax data for January showed a weakening US economy. You won’t find this data analyzed anywhere else.
The ECB continues to buy €65 billion per month in bonds from European banks. But the European banking system is shrinking, not growing. That poses grave risks.
US macro liquidity growth slowed over the past month. In fact, it has barely budged since August, rising only 0.2% since then. In contrast, stock prices have risen 4.5% over the same period. Stocks look the most overbought they have been relative to macro liquidity since May of 2015. That was a good time to…
The Fed’s policy of “raising interest rates” by paying the banks a bigger subsidy is not a tightening. It’s just the opposite, and it’s going to show up in continuing, if not increasing, monetary growth.
I am not exaggerating when I say that this market has reached one of the two most important inflection points of our lifetimes.
The rationale for the recent runup in Treasury yields is that that the economy will strengthen under El Presidente Cabeza Grande Trump. Supposedly El Presidente’s wise and stimulative policies will make the economy grow 5%. Hey, if El Presidente Cabeza Grande says it, it must be true! And the Wall Street pundits, with their infinitely…