Liquidity Trader Pro Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Disaster In The European Banking System Exposed

Banks Fleeing Banks in Europe - Click to enlarge

ECB data on bank deposits for the Eurozone shows total bank deposits down sharply in July, breaking the uptrend in force since the low in 2014. That’s shocking considering that the ECB just boosted its money printing QE programs. Deposits should be rising steadily in concert with the amount of QE, not falling. But cash extinguishment and capital flight are increasing faster than the ECB can print.

Portents of a Big Problem In Worldwide Market Liquidity

The stock and bond rallies went flat in August as heavy Treasury supply created friction for increasing liquidity. There was also evidence that liquidity growth in Europe has stalled. In spite of massive ECB money printing, European bank deposits fell in July. That indicates not just capital flight, but cash extinguishment via loan repayments and…

Lower August Tax Collections Suggest US Near Recession, Fed To Delay Again

Real time withholding tax collections slumped badly in August after skyrocketing in July. The growth rate is now back to the lowest levels of the past year. As of September 1, the annual rate of change was +1% in actual, nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago.  That would be a negative number…

TBAC Forecast Misses The Mark- More Treasury Supply To Flood Market

The Treasury rally and stock market rally stalled in August as massive new Treasury supply absorbed most available liquidity. The Treasury issued $126 billion in net new supply over the past 4 weeks. That’s at least part of the reason that the rallies in stock and prices stalled. Under the circumstances it’s surprising that prices…

Central Bank Rigging and NIRP Drive US Financial Asset Price Inflation

Negative interest rate policy (NIRP) elsewhere in the world continues to drive liquidity growth and asset price inflation in US. We saw this trend coming when NIRP was first introduced. Now the question is whether the resulting US asset price inflation was an intended or unintended consequence of foreign central bank policy. Would it even…

Loans, Deposits, and Liquidity Still Growing Rapidly In US Banks as Europe Craters

The Fed’s balance sheet remains flat but US banking indicators continue to show rapid systemic growth in loans and deposits, and hence, liquidity, as NIRP and waning confidence drive cash out of Europe. This report is part of the Macroliquidity Pro service. An update on macro liquidity indicators will follow later this week.

More Central Bank Cash Versus Limited New Supply Inflates Securities Prices

As central banks around the world print money and penalize it for staying home, demand for US Treasuries grows. That demand has met shrinking new supply. The meeting of less supply and artificially boosted demand has been an incendiary mix. In this report we see how Presidential politics and the US Treasury cash position could…