While Treasury supply is in the process of turning up after years of decline, Treasury demand continues to decline. Here’s what this means for your money.
A debt ceiling deal has been done. While it’s only for 3 months, it means that the Treasury can resume borrowing without restriction. An increase in borrowing will be needed to repay internal funds that the Treasury has raided since the debt ceiling was imposed back in March. Additional borrowing will also be needed to…
Tax collections cooled in August after a strong July, but comparisons were misleading. Here’s why and what it means for the markets.
The evidence suggests that ECB machinations have had no effect, other than to give the banks a bonus for doing nothing other than passing money around amongst themselves. ECB policy has seemed more like Animal House, a series of “really stupid and futile gestures,” which taken as a whole, are simply ridiculous. If it weren’t…
US macro liquidity growth continued in August, but stock prices remain at a record overbought reading versus liquidity. Here’s why that really matters right now, and what to do about it.
There has been no material change in the Fed balance sheet over the past month. But one is coming, and it will be one of the two most important changes in modern Fed history. It is crucial that we as investors understand what this means to us, so that we can trade and invest accordingly.
A confluence of factors has led to powerfully bullish liquidity conditions. That’s about to end. Here’s how, and what it means for your investments.
The TBAC issued its twice quarterly report to the Secretary of the Treasury on August 2. This is perhaps the most important such report I have seen over the past dozen years or so that I have been reading them. You need to know what it says and what it means so that you can…
Data from the US Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement for July showed that tax collections were strong again. The lagging economic data releases should follow this path. Here’s what that means for traders.
Household and corporate deposits have shown marked growth in Europe in recent months. It could be a sign of repatriation of capital from the US. That would be very bad news for US stocks and bonds. This report shows you the pictures, and tells you when it will matter.