Liquidity Trader Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, European banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Resulting market strategy recommendations. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Now published at Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader.

These Charts Show How Primary Dealers Create Huge Risk as They Get Longer and Longer the Bond Market

The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us…

Macro Liquidity Indicator Charts Show Rally Not Long For This World

Macro liquidity growth has slowed to a crawl. The Fed and its cohort major central banks are a negative factor on balance. But runaway financial market speculation is driving a big surge in bank lending to finance securities purchases, and that’s providing self-sustaining liquidity. But debt driven trends eventually break badly. This report looks at…

Charts Show Increased Speculative Leverage Driving Rallies in Stocks and Bonds

Meanwhile, instead of liquidating other assets to raise the cash to buy new Treasury supply, dealers and other buyers have used up cash and added to their leverage. The rally has been pushed by a massive increase in leveraged speculation. This leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable. Here’s what to look for and how to trade…

Withholding Tax Chart Belies Fed Fears, and Sends A Clear Warning To Bulls

Federal withholding tax collections went through the roof and excise taxes had solid gains in February. Here’s what this means for the economic data ahead, for the markets, and for your portfolio strategy. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and…

These Charts Show You Whether Fed’s Reversal Has Pre-Empted a Crash

The Fed announced at its January meeting that “they panicking” (apologies to Trading Places) and that neither rate increases nor the shrinkage of the balance sheet are on autopilot any longer. The Fed says it will adjust both as the economy and “financial conditions,” aka the stock market, dictate. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity…

This Chart Shows Why Dealer Positions Are a Catastrophe in the Making

The Primary Dealers are in trouble, demonstrably worse trouble than they were in just before the September 2008 stock market crash. Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of…