Liquidity Trader Pro Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro TraderSubscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Tax Collection Bubble Rages On in June

Withholding tax collections continued to grow at a strong pace through the period ended June 10. The annual growth rate has hit a plateau around +6% after accelerating for a couple months in the normal 3-4 month cyclical pattern. The peak of this cycle is due this month. Total tax collections in May rose by…

The SS Fed Sails Into Uncharted and Probably Stormy Liquidity Seas

Macro Liquidity Composite

The composite liquidity indicator edged to a new high this week, barely above the range of the past 5 months. Even with that pause, the trend is in much the same longer term path it has been on since 2012. Primary Dealer cash, the largest component, continues to grow due to the Fed’s MBS purchases.…

Treasury Market Keeps On Ticking On Supply Hit While Stocks Felt Their Pain

The Treasury market rallied a bit over the last week. It was helped by light supply in previous weeks, with paydowns adding cash to investor accounts, but that changed late last week. The new supply auctioned over that week began to settle on Friday with more settlements coming Monday. That was a depressant late in…

US Government Tax Collections and Cash Level Go From Strong To Stronger

Withholding tax collections grew a little faster over the past week. They have been modestly accelerating since early April, in what appears to be a muted but otherwise normal intermediate cycle. The peak of this cycle is due in June. There’s nothing in the data to indicate any shift in the trend of the US…

Fed Balance Sheet Review – Treasury Deposits Started Shrinking Last Week

The Treasury’s balance at the Fed has begun to decline from the record level it reached in early May as tax payments due on April 15 continued to be processed. The government is now spending the massive tax windfall. With tax demands now lower, the government’s spending should give the economic data a little bump…