Liquidity Trader Pro Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Updated- Treasury Paydowns and Fed Purchases Stoke Rallies But All “Good” Things Must Come To An End

The Treasury continues to pay down Treasury bills to avoid going over the debt ceiling. This week it paid down $38 billion in T-bills outstanding against net new coupon issuance of $26 billion. That put a net of $12 billion back into dealer and other investor accounts. This is unusual for mid October when the Treasury normally would be pounding the market with supply, depressing prices.

Federal Tax Receipts Continue Apace But Day of Reckoning Approaches on Debt

Growth in withholding tax collections continued to rebound in the second week of October.  The nominal annual growth rate rose to 5.6%. The steady strong growth of tax receipts is enabling the politicians to delay dealing with the debt ceiling, but the day of reckoning is coming. This report shows the data and reports what it…

Fed Minutes Are A Waste of Time

I will no longer comment on the bulk of the FOMC minutes. They focus on the Fed staff’s and FOMC members’ views of the economy and the markets. Why bother with that? The Fed makes policy on an ad hoc basis based on whatever happened in the markets in the weeks immediately prior to the meeting. Forward guidance is therefore meaningless and so analyzing the propaganda about the Fed’s decision process is a waste of time.

The Cases of The Disappearing Fed Funds Market and the Reappeared Half Trillion

This is an excerpt of a Pro Trader Weekly Macroliquidity service update. Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format. The Fed’s liabilities fluctuated wildly last week while total assets were little changed. The wild changes in liabilities were a direct result of the Fed actually supporting,…

Updated- We Need Not Be Rocket Scientists To Understand Supply and Demand

The Bank Treasury Purchases and Primary Dealer Trading sections have been updated with data released late Friday. The Treasury will be paying down another huge slug of Treasury bills next week to avoid going over the debt ceiling. In the process, it will continue to draw down the massive cash hoard it built up over…