Liquidity Trader Pro Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Federal Tax Collections Remain Near Stall Speed

The growth rate of withholding taxes was weak through December before a minor uptick at the end of the month. The year to year real growth rate is now around +0.5%. Here’s what it means for the markets. You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.

CORRECTED – Treasury Supply To Be Lighter But Buyers Back Away

While Treasury supply will be lighter in the first quarter, signs of weakening demand from banks and foreign central banks could spell trouble for both stocks and bonds. Note: If you have previously opened this report, the original may be stored in your browser cache. Be sure to refresh the page or clear your cache…

The Fed’s Rate Hike Hoax- There Is No Short Term Money Market

There Is No Fed Funds Market - Click to enlarge

The Fed has “raised interest rates” (wink-wink). Its primary tools in this make believe policy are interest on excess reserves (IOER) and the interest paid on reverse repos (RRP). The new Fed Funs target rate is now 25-50 bp. Fed Funs were reported to be trading at a weighted average rate of 36 bp on December 22.

Cash Destruction Not Yet Showing Up In Banking Indicators, But It Will

The macroliquidity indicators this week do not show any sign that a significant change is at hand. Yet, we know that plunging commodities, emerging markets, and leveraged junk bond markets are destroying cash. That should begin to show up in these indicators, particularly in bank deposits, in the weeks ahead.

Treasury Supply/Demand Picture Says No Holiday Celebration for Stocks and Bonds

Treasury supply has returned to “normal” in the first half of December after the massive surge in Treasury supply in November.  Supply is light this week, and the total end of month settlement is estimated to be around $50 billion.  $26 billion of new paper settles on Tuesday, but that will be cushioned by the…