Treasury demand indicators are a mixed bag this month. The Primary Dealers positions are the most important. They’ve been getting shorter.
Something big has changed. In the January 20-March 15 period, instead of raising lots of cash as usual, the Treasury is raising zero new cash. In fact, it is actually paying down debt over that time. Here’s what that has meant, and will mean, for the markets.
Barack Obama left a big gift for Donald Trump on Inauguration Day. It was the gift of cash, $382 billion in the account of the US Treasury, to be exact. That was, by far, an all time record for that date. Of course Barack did not intend to hand that over to Donnie. The Obama…
The European banking system is dead in the water in spite of massive ECB QE and NIRP. Here are the ugly details, and what they mean for the US.
US macro liquidity growth slowed over the past month. It has barely budged since August 10 of last year, actually slipping 0.2% since then. Here’s what that means for the market.
Regular bank reserve deposits, called “Other deposits held by depository institutions” rose by $239 billion in the January 4-February 8 period. Whoa. Where’d all that cash come from?
The proposition that the Treasury market is supported by deep and robust demand isn’t supported by the data that we watch. Demand has been in a secular downtrend since 2010.
When the Obama Administration built up a $400 billion pile of cash, it wasn’t expecting to hand it over to Donald J. Trump.
Federal withholding tax collections were up strongly in January, but that abruptly reversed over the past couple of days. Other tax data for January showed a weakening US economy. You won’t find this data analyzed anywhere else.
The ECB continues to buy €65 billion per month in bonds from European banks. But the European banking system is shrinking, not growing. That poses grave risks.