Bonds and the dollar have been extremely volatile while remaining rangebound. Here’s what it means in technical terms.
The market was bathed in $56 billion of fresh cash this week from the Fed and Treasury. The Fed completed most of its mid month MBS settlements, with $21 billion settled and another $10 billion to settle on Monday. The Treasury paid down a net of $35 billion in outstanding bills as it faces a…
Fed and US Treasury injections of extra cash into the market via Fed MBS purchase settlements and temporary Treasury debt paydowns often tend to coincide with FOMC meetings. We have seen this phenomenon so much that it would appear to be deliberate. Most of the time it results in a 2-3 day rally immediately on the heels of the FOMC announcement.
The Treasury will pay down outstanding debt this week and the Fed will hold its usual mid month MBS purchase settlements. The deck will be stacked for the customary Fed policy resubstantiation rally.
Growth in withholding tax collections continued to recede in in the second week of September as the government facts another crisis over the debt ceiling. This report looks at the implications for the markets. You can now subscribe to the Federal Revenues Report on a standalone monthly or weekly basis.
Both Treasury yields and the US dollar have been in trading ranges since the false breakdowns on August 23-24. The charts send messages. This report interprets them.
The Fed’s balance sheet was little changed last week as there were no MBS paydowns, nor purchase settlements. There were no term deposits offered and RRPs outstanding were little changed. Meanwhile, there’s no sign of deleveraging in the US banking system as loan growth continually exceeds 7%. Money supply grows apace. But in Europe, QE…
Key drivers of supply and demand in the Treasury market impact all US securities markets. They’ll be bullish in mid September, but will it matter? Here’s what you need to know.
Withholding tax collections started to recede in late August and early September after a blockbuster month. Click here to learn what this signals for the market and economy.
This post is an excerpt from the Pro Trader and Monthly Investor MacroLiquidity report. Subscriber links are below the text. The FOMC meeting minutes are a key instrument of official Fed propaganda. They show how the Fed wants you to view policy. There’s some useful information there, but it’s not what the Fed says it…