Liquidity Trader Pro Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Forces Of Macroliquidity Rose Slightly Last Week

The Composite Liquidity Indicator has been virtually flat in recent weeks, barely edging higher to challenge the high set in January. Stock prices have mimicked the rangebound pattern. Download this report to view summaries and charts of the performance of the indicator and its components, along with tracking the balance sheets of the Fed, ECB,…

Markets Could Get Boost from Light Treasury Supply As Bank and Foreign Central Bank Demand Pick Up

The US Treasury completed the settlement of  its biggest slug of supply in a while on Thursday and Friday, and the markets yawned. Stocks saw minor pressure. Bonds were firm, as they have been for the past 2 weeks. Download this report to learn what may be behind that and what to look for in…

Federal Withholding Tax Collections Are Plunging

Withholding tax collections have weakened in July, breaking down from the narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they had been in throughout the second quarter. The nominal growth rate declined to +2.4% this week, which is near or below zero growth in real terms, depending on what you believe the inflation rate to be.…

Will A Bear Market By Proxy Roll Out of China?

Macro Liquidity

The Composite Liquidity Indicator has been flat in recent weeks as it skirts the high set in January. Stock prices have mimicked that rangebound pattern with a temporary blip to the downside interjected last week.  The index is moving toward its 39 week moving average. The Fed has committed to “normalize” its balance sheet. While…

Light Treasury Supply and Money Printing ContinueTo Keep Markets Bid

The US Treasury continues to reduce. Light net new supply met Fed MBS purchase settlements last week, helping to keep a bid under both stocks and bonds. Meanwhile banks have been selling or redeeming Treasuries, boosting their cash levels after the big Treasury paydowns in June. The message the data is sending remains consistent with…

Treasury Hoards Cash (Why?) As Tax Revenues Soar

Withholding tax collections weakened last week, which has implications for July nonfarm payrolls, but remained in the same narrow range of 5-6% annual nominal growth they have been in since April. The Treasury continues to build and hold record levels of cash instead of increasing spending. Download this report for all the details, charts, and analysis…