The Federal Government’s withholding tax collections rebounded strongly this week, signaling an upturn in the usual short term cyclical pattern that we’ve seen in this data. here’s what that tells us about the trend of jobs and the US economy, and what it means for the Fed and US markets.
Money and The Fed
Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity
Money and The Fed
Here’s Why The Liquidity Trend Is Still Bulls’ Friend
by Lee Adler •
In spite of a few hiccups around the world the trend of liquidity flowing into the US system remains a bullish factor for The Last Ponzi Game Standing, the US bond and stock markets. Here’s why.
Money and The Fed
MBS Settlements Showed Up In Dealer Accounts On Fed Balance Sheet This Week
by Lee Adler •
The Fed began its monthly settlement of MBS purchases last week as it always does around mid month. These settlements pump cash into Primary Dealer accounts in exchange for the MBS the dealers sold to the Fed under forward purchase contracts. This typically gives the markets a boost just after mid month each month as…
Money and The Fed
Surging Dollar, Plunging Yield Continue
by Lee Adler •
Friday’s action notwithstanding, the trends in the US Dollar and Treasuries seem likely to continue.
Money and The Fed
Flush With Fed and Treasury Cash, Traders Go Bipolar
by Lee Adler •
Treasury supply was very light this week for a mid month round and the Fed began its regular monthly MBS purchase settlements this week. I wrote last week that considering that there was very little new supply to be absorbed, I expected that to either stoke the stock market rally or reignite the bond rally, or…
Money and The Fed
Fed Pumps $28 Billion Into Dealer Accounts This Week
by Lee Adler •
The Fed will settle $28 billion in previous forward MBS purchases this week, which is already having a salutary effect on the market on Wednesday. Here’s how the rest of the macroliquidity flows shape up going forward.
Money and The Fed
Fed’s Spaghetti Movement Roils Markets But Fails At Purported Purpose
by Lee Adler •
The Fed massively moved the spaghetti around the its balance sheet liability plate over the past 5 weeks. It was supposedly done on an “operational testing” basis but it caused havoc in the markets. On the other hand it had no effect where it was supposed to–on interest rates. Here’s a look at what happened…
Money and The Fed
Dealers and Banks Find Loose Change In The Sofa
by Lee Adler •
Unusually light Treasury supply and $225 billion in term Reverse Repos returned to the banks’ regular deposits at the Fed on January 5 resulted in too much cash meeting too little paper this week. We’ve seen how that worked out. Here’s a look ahead at supply conditions and what that implies for the markets for…
Money and The Fed
Current Federal Tax Data Paints Veneer of Prosperity, But With Tiny Cracks
by Lee Adler •
The Federal Government’s withholding tax collections weakened through December and into the first few days of January. Here’s what that means to the markets.
Money and The Fed
Central Banks Only Have Themselves To Blame For Putting The World In Stormy Uncharted Seas
by Lee Adler •
The liquidity picture has weakened primarily due to the collapse of the oil as money substitute trade that was first instituted when the Fed and the rest of the world’s central banks began printing money hand over fist in 2009. Central bankers only have themselves to blame for the resulting chaos. How do we chart…
