The Primary Dealers deployed the cash they had been sitting on last week to ignite a stampede when the Fed announced it would taper. The Fix (or is it Fex) was in. Fortunately, we saw this coming. More cash came last week and is coming in the Christmas week in the form of big paydowns…
Money and The Fed
Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity
When Fed Tapers Market May Buy the News – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
What if the Fed tapers and, contrary to conventional wisdom, the players buy the news. Indeed, liquidity wise this appears to be an opportune time for the Fed to taper as Treasury supply pressure will be non existent in January. At the same time dealers have been building a huge cash pile apparently in anticipation…
Stock and Bond Bears Must Beware as Dealers Pile Up Cash – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
Primary Dealers did not deploy the $55 billion in cash which they got from the Fed this week in settlement of the Fed’s forward MBS purchases from October and November. More Fed cash will hit the dealers this week. Since they have not deployed it yet, that provides an increasing store of fuel to power…
Fed Report Schedule Note
by Newswires •
Due to my travel schedule this week, the Fed and Macro-liquidity report will not be posted this week. I have reviewed the data and there are no substantive changes. The Treasury update will be posted this weekend as usual.
Yes Virginia, There Really Is a Printing Press – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
New deposits at the Fed covered only $10.6 billion of the $19 billion of the Fed’s asset purchases last week. It made up most of the difference by increasing reverse repo borrowings by $1.3 billion and in particular by printing and shipping $7 billion in cash to the banks and CIA black ops guys around…
Potentially Bullish Short Term Signs for Bonds – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
A couple of bullish liquidity indications for Treasuries in recent weeks may be laying the groundwork for a rally, which would give the Fed an excuse to do a token taper sooner than expected. Table of Contents Treasury Auctions Week Just Completed Week Ahead Treasury Auction Takedowns By Investor Class Primary Dealer Trading Foreign Central…
Impact of QE3-4 Up to 457 S&P Points and Counting – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
Stocks have risen 457 points since the first QE3 and 4 settlements in November 2012. This report looks at where liquidity is now, and what changes and risks are apparent. Table of Contents Macroliquidity Component Indicators Fed Cash to Primary Dealers Foreign central bank purchases US commercial bank deposit flows Bank Treasury purchases Bank Trading…
Turkey Day Indigestion Ahead- Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
With Federal tax receipts returning to trend growth, Treasury supply should recede. However, demand factors in the Treasury market are still weak. Here are the keys to the likely effects on both bonds and the stock market. Table of Contents Treasury Auctions Week Just Completed Week Ahead Treasury Auction Takedowns By Investor Class Primary Dealer…
Macro Liquidity Continues to Surge, But There’s Now a Huge Caveat – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
The composite liquidity indicator has been rising steadily as the Fed continues buying securities. Less heavily weighted components are also mostly rising along with Fed cash. There’s no sign of meaningful change, but there is a caveat. Table of Contents Macroliquidity Component Indicators Fed Cash to Primary Dealers Foreign central bank purchases US commercial bank…
Federal Revenues Back to Trend, Shutdown Effects Are Finished – Professional Edition
by Lee Adler •
With Federal tax receipts returning to trend growth, Treasury supply should recede. The Fed’s QE purchases will face fewer headwinds. Table of Contents Treasury Auctions Week Just Completed Week Ahead Treasury Auction Takedowns By Investor Class Primary Dealer Trading Foreign Central Banks ECB And The Treasury Market Bond Fund Flows Bank Purchases Of Treasuries Federal…