Liquidity Trader Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, European banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Resulting market strategy recommendations. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. 8 reports each month. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

This Chart Shows Why Dealer Positions Are a Catastrophe in the Making

The Primary Dealers are in trouble, demonstrably worse trouble than they were in just before the September 2008 stock market crash. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction…

January Tax Collections Make You Wonder Why Fed Panicked – Correction

CORRECTION: This morning I noticed an error in my reporting of the Federal Excise Tax collections in January. The error was borderline material relative to excise taxes. The annual growth rate was positive, and at the same rate as in December, but not at the rate I originally reported. The original chart as posted was correct.…

Fed Chairman Chamberlain Appeases Wall Street To Gain Peace in Our Time

You’re probably dying to know what I think about the FOMC statement and Chairman Pow’s press conference today. OK, maybe not, but this report will tell you why you should not be misled by what went down today. Just as with Neville Chamberlain, this apparent abject surrender to Trump and Wall Street’s threats does not mean…

Party Over – To Print Or Not To Print, That Is the Question Now

Thanks to the government shutdown (GSD) the Treasury had a few extra shekels lying around this month, and it used those to pay down T-bills. That cash flowed back into the accounts of dealers and investors who held the bills. Enough of them used that cash to buy stocks to foment a meltup. Now that the…

The Fed Sings A Sweet Tune – Here’s Why It Will Lead To Market Bitterness

Prior to the onset of QE in 2009, a normal reserve position meant tight reserves. There were virtually no excess reserves on the Fed’s balance sheet. That means that the drains will continue until the balance sheet reaches a tight reserve position. Except that that can’t happen because the markets and the economy would have…

December Tax Collections Reveal Wall Street’s False Economic Narrative

The media had been excusing the stock market decline, and explaining the bond market rally in December by saying that investors were worried about slowing economic growth. Federal tax collection data for December shows that that is a false narrative. The data and charts show why this false narrative is dangerous to your financial health.…

Here’s Why Overloaded Dealers Will Weigh On The Bond and Stock Markets

Treasury demand trends have looked bullish in the short run, but they’re just laying the seeds of that, “Bullish? Not so much!” hangover. Liquidity Moves Markets – Follow The Money!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know…

Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Buy Bonds Despite Bullish Signs on Their Charts

Longer term Treasuries began to rally in early November and that rally has continued, fueled largely by the big liquidation of stocks over the past couple of months. There’s no sign yet of any real easing of tightening conditions in the money market. The uptrend in short term rates is intact. But there are bullish…