Liquidity Trader Pro Complete

Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.

Bubble Trouble At US Banks

Money supply maintained its rapid growth in October, with the annual growth rate rising to 8%, the fastest growth since a brief surge at the end of 2012. This suggests bubble dynamics are at work. The Fed hasn’t tightened yet. Speculative behavior has been raging. Speculative lending is growing rapidly. This is unhealthy and will…

Macro Liquidity Still Rising But So Is Market Friction

The stock and bond rallies went flat in August and bonds sold off in September as heavy Treasury supply and foreign sovereign liquidation of Treasury holdings created friction in the markets. Liquidity growth has been slowing, and while overall liquidity is still rising, the market response to rising liquidity has been diminishing as friction builds.

Employers Are Always Last to Get the News

Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…

US Economy Falling Short of Official Forecasts Pressures Markets

The TBAC is a committee of Primary Dealers tasked by the Fed to provide it with a quarterly forecast of how much Treasury debt will be needed to cover the deficit for the current and next quarters. It has persistently overestimated the strength of the US economy and government tax collections this year. Treasury supply…

Mario Borat Draghi’s “Great Success”- The European Banking System

The horror show of European banking system data just keeps getting worse. With Deutsche Bank now constantly in the headlines, it has the look and feel of impending doom, maybe worse than 2008-09. The biggest difference between then and now is that back then the financial markets had already plunged and central banks had yet…