Treasury supply will now be a negative factor for the markets through early June. This is unlike the late April, early May period where the Treasury was paying down debt thanks to the cash flows from April tax collections.
Real time withholding tax collections have been strong since I last reported on April 24. The nominal annual growth rate is now 6.6%%. This has slightly broken a downtrend in these collections over the prior 7 months. But is that bullish? Click here to download report. This is part of a series of free Wall…
I wrote the last two Pro Trader Market Update reports while sitting in a hospital bed this weekend after having had a small heart attack on Friday. On Monday I’ll have a procedure to correct the problem, and should be as good as “slightly used-reconditioned” in a few days. When I started having severe chest pain after…
The 10 year Treasury yield has rebounded to the top of its intermediate term trading range, while the US dollar has been in a test of major support. Here’s where the charts are pointing.
Except for a brief interlude at the end of this month, in terms of Treasury supply, the deck still looks stacked against the bears at least through June. However, Foreign Central Banks are turning negative again.
Nothing has changed since the last update. US Bank Deposits and Loans are soaring as capital flees NIRP in Europe.
Real time withholding tax collections accelerated this week. The nominal annual growth rate rose to +4.7%. This has reached the limit of the downtrend in these collections over the past 7 months.
The deck looks stacked against the bears at least through June. Here are the particulars on why, and what to expect.
Liquidity is flooding into the US. US market liquidity has been growing at an increasing rate this year after being nearly stalled in 2015. This increase has buoyed US stock prices. The Composite Liquidity Indicator is up 4.3% over the past 12 months. The SPX is now down just 0.7% from one year before after…
Real time withholding tax collection data showed slight year to year growth last week, but certain excise taxes suggest that the US economy continues the contraction that began a few months ago.