US macro liquidity has grown slowly over the past year. Meanwhile, stock price inflation has surged, setting up a large divergence versus liquidity. It suggests that the market has become overextended due to excessive bullish sentiment. This is the mirror image of the oversold reading in February 2016. The difference today is that the Fed…
Liquidity Trader Pro Complete
Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity. Includes all reports from Federal Revenues Pro Trader, Macroliquidity Pro Trader, and Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader. Click here to subscribe. Subscribers, click the post headline to access reports.
Macro Liquidity Pro Trader
Financial Indicators In The Calm Before The Storm
by Lee Adler •
The Fed’s announcement that it will soon begin to shrink its balance sheet is the most important step the Fed has taken with monetary policy since it first started outright purchases of Treasuries from Primary Dealers in March 2009. The Fed’s balance sheet and several key banking indicators are currently in the “calm before the storm.”
Macro Liquidity Pro Trader, Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader, US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report
Fed Gets Real With the Boa Constrictor Approach to Tightening
by Lee Adler •
This is a special report for all subscribers to Macro Liquidity, Federal Revenues and Treasury Pro Trader subscribers. Back on April 18, I wrote: By late this year the Fed may have begun to implement its proposed policy of “normalizing” the balance sheet. That’s a nice way of saying “shrinking” the balance sheet. To do…
Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader
Here’s Why Bullish Demand for Treasuries Is Setting Up The Sell Signal of The Century
by Lee Adler •
Total Treasury auction demand has been generally stable over the past year, while in a long term downtrend. With stable demand and stable supply, yields have been stable, just above the long term lows set in 2012 and 2016. The supply side is about to become very unstable. While demand looks set to remain stable,…
Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader
Oh The Games Treasury People Play Now
by Lee Adler •
The markets have done as we expected, but not for the reason we expected. The meltup could have been worse, and may still yet get worse. But the Treasury figured out how to keep new Treasury supply flowing to market even though we’re at the debt ceiling. That slowed the rally. We’re not sure why…
US Federal Revenues Pro Trader Report
April’s Surge Becomes May Dirge
by Lee Adler •
May Federal tax collection data sent negative signals. The surge in April withholdings turned into a purge in May, as collections decelerated sharply. The weakness in nonfarm payrolls was no accident. Here’s why more bad news may be coming and why it may not be bearish for markets yet. You won’t find this data analyzed…
Macro Liquidity Pro Trader
European Bank Data Shows Reports of European Economic Growth Greatly Exaggerated
by Lee Adler •
We continue to see stories of accelerating economic growth in Europe. I don’t track European economic data, but I can tell you this. The reported economic growth isn’t showing up in European banking data, which I do track. You would think that if Europe’s economy is really growing that it would show up in bank…
Macro Liquidity Pro Trader
While Its Cohorts Print, Fed Says I Think You’ve Had Enough!
by Lee Adler •
Countless billions of newly printed money have kept flowing into US markets from Europe and Japan. Their central banks keep printing it, and their banks and institutions keep shunting some of it straight to Wall Street. That has continued to feed what, at this point, is probably the greatest asset bubble in the history of…
Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader
Short Term Rally In Treasuries Will Be A Setup For The Next Big Short
by Lee Adler •
Treasury demand is likely to outstrip supply in the weeks ahead. But it will be a setup for the next big short. Here’s why. And that tells you what to do about it.
Treasury Supply and Demand Pro Trader
Watch Out! The Treasury Roller Coaster Has Hit The Ceiling
by Lee Adler •
They hit the ceiling this week. The Treasury skipped the announcement of the usual mid-month 3 year and 20 year note auctions. That means we now face reduced Treasury supply until the debt ceiling is raised. That a big bullish impetus for the duration of the impasse. But it will only be temporary. Then what?