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Economic and and financial news and analysis

Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Not Bode Well For Employment

This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Chart page.  The edge that Federal Withholding Tax collections had held over last year continued to narrow last week, suggesting a weakening employment picture in May. The chart below compares current withholding tax collections with last year on the same date. This year collections have been…

JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) Losses Keep Unraveling

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) beleaguered CEO Jamie Dimon will not be happy when he reads through Friday’s papers.

The Financial Times reported that more than a dozen senior traders and credit experts know that JPMorgan is in a lot more trouble than just suffering $2.3 billion – and counting – in losses.

Turns out the unit at JPMorgan that’s responsible for the loss has been the biggest buyer of European mortgage-backed bonds and other complex debt securities in all markets for three years.

Now JPMorgan has built up positions totaling $100 billion in the same risky financial products that triggered the financial crisis in 2008.

But anyone who followed Money Morning‘s Shah Gilani as he covered the topic knew this was a likely hidden truth.

You see, Gilani told us last Sunday, just days after news of the losses broke, that there was more to these trades than one hedge-gone-wrong.

“The idiots at the bank wanted to hedge against European credit exposure that they had,” Gilani wrote last to his Wall Street Insights and Indictments readers. “They are idiots because the money that’s shepherded by the Chief Investment Office (some $379 billion, yeah, that number is right) is money that the bank has and hasn’t lent out, or technically is “available” to play with. And instead of parking it in U.S. government bonds (Citi has $293 billion of the same float and has 87% of it parked in “governments”), they parked a lot of it in Europe’s crappy credit markets.”

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Heavy Betting in the Middle of Mayhem

There’s going to be a lot of very heavy betting over the next few days, weeks, and months on what’s going up, what’s going down, and what’s going around:

  1. How far will Facebook IPO price go?
  2. How far DOWN from here will JPMorgan go, with the FBI and DOJ now sniffing around?
  3. How far AROUND the globe will the fallout be if Greece loses its game of chicken?

If you don’t have the stomach for what’s going to feel like an out-of-control rollercoaster ride, sideline yourself.

If, on the other hand, you like a lot of action, welcome to Mayhem – the preamble month to what will likely be the Summer of Some Discontent.

That is, unless you like rapid-fire trading.

Which, by the way, is not just fun, but can be very, very profitable. I’m in, and so are the subscribers to my Capital Wave Forecast. We’re gearing up for some heavy betting in the weeks and months ahead.

So, what’s front and center today? You know. The big three headlines: Facebook, JPMorgan Chase, and Greece. Are you sick of hearing about them? I’m not. I like trading the headlines.

Here’s my “heads-up” on the big three headlines.

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Unemployment Claims Like Barbecue- Lower But Slower

While the mainstream media was reporting that jobless claims were steady last week, the real picture was more nuanced. The media reports only the seasonally smoothed  number, which can obscure what’s really going on and is often late in recognizing trend changes because of the inherent smoothing. I liken it to Impressionist Art. It’s an…

The Conomy Game- The Legend of Bennie The Beard, Henry the Hitman, and the Gangbankster Dealers

The shape of recent economic data trends reminds me of a story. It’s a story that shows just how the Fed’s manipulation drives both the stock market and the conomy. It’s also a story of the twisted personalities behind the facades of institutional power. This is not something that you will read in the mainstream…