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Economic and and financial news and analysis

While Claims Track the Trend, Payrolls Data Fails to Track Surge in Withholding Taxes

Claims data is consistent with the consensus for an increase of 100,000 in nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. But real time Federal Withholding tax data suggests that the data will beat the consensus estimate, and not just by a little. This is an excerpt update from the permanent employment charts page, which is updated when new data…

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

In the week ending June 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 374,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 387,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6…

ADP Employment Report and Charts

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 176,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from April to May was revised up modestly, from the initial estimate of 133,000 to a revised estimate of 136,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased by 160,000 in June, after…

Here’s Why Good News on Factory Orders Doesn’t Matter

Orders for U.S. factory goods rose more than expected in May, after declines the prior two months, but headwinds appear to persist for sector that has recently shown signs of sputtering. Orders for manufactured goods increased 0.7 % in May to a seasonally adjusted $469.04 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow…