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Economic and and financial news and analysis

WTF Is Wrong With The Jobs Data? Actual Numbers Were Strong- Seasonal Adjustment Is Wrong

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) must be staffed with Republicans. There’s something wrong with the headline number this month. It is consistent with the pattern of the past 5 months where the seasonally adjusted (SA) headline numbers appear to understate the trend of the actual, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) numbers. The BLS today reported…

Claims Beat As Out of Whack Seasonal Adjustments Start Bending Toward Actual Trend And Suggest a Huge Beat on Payrolls

The Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted (SA) first time claims for unemployment were down 12,000 at 365,000  in the advance report for the week ended September1. That beat the consensus estimate of 373,000. Actual claims, not seasonally adjusted (NSA-the actual total of individual state counts submitted to the Department of Labor) were 310,000 (rounded)…

ECB Plan Said to Pledge Unlimited, Sterilized Bond-Buying – There’s Sterilization and Then There’s Not

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s bond-buying proposal involves unlimited purchases of government debt that will be sterilized to assuage concerns about printing money, two central bank officials briefed on the plan said. Under the blueprint, which may be called “Monetary Outright Transactions,” the ECB would refrain from setting a public cap on yields, according…