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Economic and and financial news and analysis

Federal Funds Rate Is Communicating (Again)

It is the shadows what really matter. A big enough problem in them would affect pretty much everything, including far off, out-of-the-way places like federal funds. Thus, if we observe weird things going on there we can infer more serious issues back where it does mean something. In 2013 and 2014, the Federal Reserve was […]

Commercial Real Estate Bubble Chart

Given the advent of on-line shopping, commercial real estate prices are not quite back to where they were at the height of the asset bubble prior to the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Suburban office space is barely above the pre-crisis peak. On the other hand, apartment prices are substantially above where they were in 2008-2009, … Continue reading CRE Bubble? Commercial Real Estate Prices Since The Financial Crisis (Apartments Have Largest Run-up, Retail Has Poorest)

Is It Springtime in Housing?

New York | Last week the Mortgage Bankers Association released their annual production report for 2018. It is not a pretty picture. The Federal Open Market Committee has supposedly been “helping” the housing finance sector for years by purchasing long-dated securities, yet mortgage lenders have turned in their worst performance in decade. The MBA estimates total residential mortgage production volume at $1.64 trillion in 2018, down almost 7% from $1.76 trillion in 2017. “In basis points, the

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