Why ethics, and proper understanding of VUCA environments (environments characterized by volatility/risk, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) will matter more in the future than they matter even today? Because AI will require human control, and that…
My post on economic outlook for 2019 is now available from the Focus Economics: https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/constantin-gurdgiev-thoughts-on-the-global-economy-for-2019
Even amid a partial federal government shutdown, filings for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. Jobless claims declined by 3,000 to 213,000 in the week ended Jan. 12, a five-week low, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. Details on claims by federal employees are reported with a lag, and analysts caution that it may take … Continue reading What If They Shutdown The US Federal Government … And No One Noticed (Jobless Claims Fall By 3,000 Amid Partial Shutdown) →
China’s central bank, the People’s Bank Of China, now has the world’s largest balance sheet topping even the European Central Bank (ECB).
A great post from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco blog (https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2019/january/how-much-do-we-spend-on-imports/) showing estimates for total imports content of the U.S. household cons…
December 2018 reading for Eurocoin, a lead growth indicator for euro area posted a second consecutive monthly decline, falling from 0.47 in November to 0.42 in December. December reading now puts Eurocoin at its lowest levels since October 2016.Charts …
[Reuters] Asia shares falter on China unease, pound finds some peace[FT] EM groups will pay heavy price for gorging on debt[Bloomberg] China Is Turning Into Its Own Worst Economic Enemy[Bloomberg] China’s Growth Machine No Longer Lo…
There’s a special report that I look forward to on the 8th business day of the month. This month, that was the 11th. Only this month, it wasn’t there. It’s the Monthly Treasury Statement for the preceding month from the US Treasury.
We love that data because it’s raw, unadulterated, and unmanipulated. It gives us an inside look at critical sectors of the US economy. It covers the entire month, not just a snapshot on a given day, and it’s only 8 days old when they give it to us.
Even better is the end of month Daily Treasury Statement, which is released the day after the month ends. I’ve been accumulating that data for years. Not only is it pure unmanipulated reality, it’s real time.
I issue a detailed monthly report about key line items, like withholding, non-withheld, corporate and excise taxes. And I’m always happy to pull a juicy tidbit from that report for you every so often.
Then around the middle of the month, I report on the Monthly Treasury Statement. The monthly data provides additional details on Social Security versus income tax withheld, and in the categories of Excise taxes. Those are like Federal sales taxes on numerous items, like guns, alcohol, your phone bill, tobacco, as well as the better known levies on aviation, and gas at the pump.
It’s great data and I was looking forward to finding and reporting something interesting for you. But alas, this month it’s nowhere to be found. The government shutdown has delayed it. I guess we’ll just have to go without for now.
But that’s the nice thing about the Daily Treasury Statement. They’re still publishing it and we need not wait until the end of the month. And boy does it have an interesting story to tell this month.
The post Tax Data Shows That The Latest Market “Narrative” is Really a “Myth” appeared first on Lee Adler’s Sure Money.
Global uncertainites abound. And with them, the US TReasury yield curve, the US Dollar Swaps curve, and the 1-month LIBOR curves are all kinked.
These curves are kinked all day and all the night.
The Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) helped to rebuild US household net worth. But it was rebuilt with asset bubbles