A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Money and The Fed
Reports on the Fed and Treasury, primary dealers, foreign central banks, money market and mutual fund flows, and other factors that affect market liquidity
Just the Facts M’am, Just the Facts- A Brief Liquidity Summary
A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest of getting caught up, I’m presenting a condensed version of the Fed Report tonight. It includes just the main components of the macro liquidity indicator (which I suspect is probably...
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Treasuries Vacuuming Up All Available Liquidity
The Treasury had a light calendar last week. The market faced a big Treasury settlement on Tuesday but from then until the big end of month settlement of new paper, supply pressure wasn’t, and won’t be, a problem. With fear driving waves of capital into the Treasuries, a downside breakout in yields, and an...
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Market’s Liquidity Indicators Begin To Tilt Bearish – With Free Excerpt
The composite liquidity indicator downticked last week on small declines in most of its components. We know that the downtick in the Fed’s pumping to Primary Dealers is temporary, but the weakening in other indicators may not be. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the...
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Final Blowoff of the Last Ponzi Game
The Treasury had a heavy calendar this week, but the new supply won’t settle until May 15. After Tuesday, Treasury supply will not pressure the market until the end of month settlement of notes and bonds. But the market has other problems and they are big ones. This 2 part report examines key forces...
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Market Liquidity Trend Still Bullish, But Only Treasuries Get The Benefit
The composite liquidity indicator rose slightly last week, on slight increases on most of its components. The uptrend in the indicator has continued at a steady pace since it broke out in March. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the Treasury market, with stocks getting...
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Getting The Hell Out of Dodge
Assuming the 4 week bill offering again totals $30 billion, the market will have a paydown of $2 billion on Thursday, so even though there’s a big calendar, the impact won’t be felt until the following week when the buyers of the paper have to think about how to pay for it. Supply won’t...
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Liquidity Tide Continues To Rise As Fed Falls Behind The Inflation Curve
This is an extended free excerpt from the Professional Edition Fed Report. The composite liquidity indicator rose slightly last week, on a mixed performance of its components. The uptrend in the indicator has continued at a steady pace since it broke out in March. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the...
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Tide About To Go Out On The Sea of Cash
Extended free summary excerpt The massive $50 billion Treasury bill paydown that the dealers and other holders received on April 16, augmented by a much more modest $3 billion paydown last week was enough to keep the markets floating upward on a sea of cash. But the tide is about to go out. Monday,...
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Is The Liquidity Tide Coming In or Going Out For Stocks?
This is an extended excerpt from the Professional Edition Fed Report Executive Summary. Note: Pages 4-10 comments correctly updated at 3:55 PM NY time. The composite liquidity indicator rose sharply last week, driven by a big Fed settlement of MBS purchases. The uptrend in the indicator is accelerating. Over the course of this latest...
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Good For Nothing $50 Billion Gift To Dealers Wasted
The markets got a gift in the week just ended, but they couldn’t do much with it. The Treasury paid down a whopping $50 billion in expiring short term bills on Thursday. That’s cash that came back to holders of the paper, many of whom were Primary Dealers. They used some of it to...
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Primary Dealers and Their Biggest Client Off The Hook For Now, What Next?
The composite liquidity indicator edged higher last week, continuing a slow but steady uptrend. In February and March, the indicator had accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average. That acceleration has slowed, but the indicator continues to advance. With somewhat less abundant liquidity, the government and Primary Dealers have targeted that liquidity...
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Treasury and Primary Dealers Shake The Stock Market Tree When Needed
The markets get a gift in the coming week. Depending on how strong tax receipts are, the Treasury will pay down as much as $48 billion in expiring short term bills on Thursday. That’s cash that will come back to holders of the paper. They’ll have to put it somewhere. This is a normal...
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Housing Market Data Tilts Slightly Positive
Some housing sales data now shows prices with a slight year over year increase including the NAR’s existing home sales and the Commerce Department’s new home sales data. The NAR data is from February, representing mostly contracts from December. It tells us nothing about the current market. The Commerce Department data is more current,...
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Liquidity Composite At Record High
The composite liquidity indicator was virtually flat last week, for a second week, on a mixed performance in its components. In February and March, the indicator had accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average, but it has stalled over the last 4 weeks. With less abundant liquidity, the government and Primary Dealers...
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A Week on (Relatively) Easy Street for Treasuries
The following is the executive summary of this week’s report to subscribers.To read the reports risk free for 30 days (one time only), click here. The markets face another week on relatively easy street in terms of Treasury supply. Even though the Treasury is auctioning a big slug of longer term paper, it is...
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Cyclical Liquidity Flows Approach Inflection Point
The following is an excerpt from the Executive Summary of this week’s Professional Edition Fed Report. Subscribers can access the full report here. The composite liquidity indicator was virtually flat last week on a mixed performance in its components. The indicator has recently accelerated upward away from its 39 week moving average. With demand...
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Pavlov’s Dogs Salivating For Ben’s Big Pork Bone Again
The market managers ginned up some bogus bad economic news this week and were able to push Treasury yields down. The actual, not seasonally manipulated economic data was much stronger than the Wall Street pundits would have you believe, as I showed in a couple of free articles in the Wall Street Examiner. After...
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Moving To Launch Pad, Will SPX Booster Rocket Blow Up or Lift Off?
The market sank a bit as it entered what ideally should be the last few days of a 6 month cycle down phase that hasn’t gone down. Down phases that don’t give ground sometimes lead to bursts out of the gate when the cycle turns up,but the down phase isn’t complete yet.
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Markets Now On Their Own, Almost, But Major Top At Least 6 Months Away
The cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation has now settled in to wherever its holders wanted to park it so we’re entering a whole new world where the ECB sits on its hands, and the Fed keeps its balance sheet stable. The overwhelming force that the central banks had been applying...
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Treasury Yield Breakout? Not So Fast!
The 10 year yield arrived at the top of the base pattern at 2.40 this week. At that point the stock market mysteriously got the shakes and enough cash was freed up to buy enough Treasuries to prevent a major trend breakout in yields. The market sentinels deep in the bowels of the Treasury...
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The Bad News Is That Market is Celebrating What Was, Not What’s To Come
The cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation hit the US banking system last week. At the same time the Fed is still pumping cash into Primary Dealer trading accounts, and it just completed a big mid month cash infusion. This was all part of the master manipulators’ master plan, of which...
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As Good As It Gets No More, Treasuries Puke
Treasury supply was in line with the TBAC forecast in the week just completed, but there are signs in weak tax withholding that suggest possible surprise increases in supply that the market could ill afford at the moment. The Fed met a big Treasury issuance on March 15 with a big settlement of the...
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Europe’s Pain Is US’s Gain
The cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation began to find its level throughout the world financial system last week, but it will take another week for the various measurements of those levels to show up in the lagging data, and several more weeks or months for the full effects to be...
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Demand For Treasuries Has Peaked
Treasury supply was in line with the TBAC forecast in the week just completed, and it should again be in line next week. The market has had help in absorbing new supply from the ECB’s LTRO cash, allowing the Fed to stay on the sideline. Based on the pattern the Fed has established, it...
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Final Chapter Hasn’t Been Written, Although A Solar Fireball Will Hit Earth In the Morning So…
The world may end in the morning, but the central banks will simply threaten to print more money and the market will rally in anticipation. Meanwhile, enough of Monday’s break was retraced to leave in doubt whether a full blown correction will ensue. The upside projections in the mid to high 1400s for the...
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Has As Good As It Gets Already Run Its Course?
Apparently the cash generated by the ECB’s second big LTRO operation has yet to be deployed in the markets, which leads us to the possibility that the boat was already overloaded on the buy side (See Treasury report). But that cash is out there, and once the profit taking dries up, the composite liquidity...
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Conditions As Good As They Get, What Comes After for Treasuries and Stocks?
The following is the executive summary of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing Update. The complete report with illustrative charts and analysis is available to subscribers here. The report is also available via 30 day risk free trial. Click here for information. This is as good as it gets for the Treasury market....
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If The Guilty (Mortgage Mafia) Are Never Punished, Housing Will Never Recover
The following is the executive summary of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing Update. The complete report with illustrative charts and analysis is available to subscribers here. Housing data continues to be mixed. Lagging closed sales data shows prices still declining. However, the most current sales data represents January closings, which were mostly...
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Fed Sits Tight As The World Awaits The Appearance of El Toro Grande
Wednesday is the big day as the ECB reintroduces El Toro (LTRO) Grande otherwise known as the big Long Term Refinancing Operation. Everybody, and I mean everybody, expects a flood of liquidity into the markets, with consensus estimates of $500 billion in fresh cash being pumped into the European banking system. Given that 7...
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