The Wall Street Examiner » Long Term Outlook

Past History Says Bear Market Starts Now

Lee Adler — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 17:58:28 +0000

Not much has changed since I last updated this report in September. The 1968-73 template may still be instructive.

There’s much more in this report including a drilldown into weekly charts for a better idea of where things currently stand and where probability suggests they will head from here. The Professional Edition Daily Market updates will fill in the blanks day to day as things progress.

Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Don’t be in the dark! Get multiple time frame cyclical, regression channel, and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update.

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What Fed Does Now Could Skew Longer Term Cycles

Lee Adler — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 16:35:19 +0000

The following is an excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Long Term Outlook Update. The link for subscriber access to the full report with 13 pages of charts, analysis and conclusions is below.

For the past several years I have alluded to the similarity between this market and the 1969-71 period. That market made a major cyclical bottom in May 1970 and a major cyclical top in January 1973. The bull market lasted 32 months. In September 2011 it is now 30 months since the March 2009 low. No two market eras are identical, but the suggestion is that the current market may be in a topping window between now and the end of the year. The August peak may be premature in this context, but certainly within what could be considered a normal variance. As I wrote earlier this year (below) there were several reasons to expect this market to top out earlier. Here are some of those comments.

(4/19/11) It was 18 months after the 1970 low that that market began a 14 month trek to new all time highs. That suggests that this market might still be 5 months away from a final peak. However, no 2 markets are exactly alike. My bet would be that this bull market ends when the Fed stops printing. It will attempt that this summer, but a sharp market break would almost certainly bring the Fed back into the market, and that could lead to a subsequent test of the high or a minor new high.

(2/7/11) Obviously there are variances, but with Fed printing due to last until June, it seems likely that there will be at least several more months of upside. If this bubble gains enough momentum it could extend beyond the end of QE2 by a month or two as the dealers use every trick in their books to set up the sheep for the kill. We saw it in the 2007-08 commodities blowoff. The high in commodities came well after the Fed had shut off the spigot in mid 2007.

(6/8/11) That was written in February. Given the market’s recent behavior and the action of the long term cycle momentum indicators I now rate the odds of a new high later this year as about a tossup. High tide may have already been reached. Much will depend on how much damage the market will sustain over the next couple of months. If it holds above 11,500, then at least a retest or higher high is probably in the cards. Between 11,000 and 11,500 is a gray area. Below that, a bear market would probably be under way.

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Long Term Outlook On Course- Sell Strength

Lee Adler — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 15:12:57 +0000

For the past several years I have alluded to the similarity between this market and the 1969-71 period. Now (6/8/11) 27 months since the March 2009 low, this market is still looking a lot like that one. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

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1971-72 Redux Update

Lee Adler — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 20:21:38 +0000

This market continues to follow the 1971-72 template and the Fed’s sponsorship of the rally has probably kept the market on course for a similar outcome. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

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Schedule Note: The regular daily update will return on Wednesday evening.

1550 or Bust

Lee Adler — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 19:55:08 +0000

Fed intervention has broken very long term cycle norms, but the market continues to follow the 1968-1972 template. This report examines where we are versus that period, concluding that the uptrend could last for months more and lead to all time highs in the S&P 500. Will I be forced to rewrite this tomorrow? Check in and decide for yourself.

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When The Them Decide Enough Is Enough- Professional Edition

Lee Adler — Tue, 07 Dec 2010 21:49:55 +0000

When will this uptrend end? How high is it likely to go. This long term update examines those questions and reaches some interesting conclusions. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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Bulls Make The Rules- Professional Edition Long Term Update

Lee Adler — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 20:25:04 +0000

As I left it in the last update in mid September, a September close above 11,000 on the Dow would indicate on the quarterly bar chart that the 36 year cycle wave had turned at least flat. The market didn’t quite make it in September, but did in October. It would now need to end the year below 11,300 to keep that wave flat. A close materially above that would probably mean that the channel is turning upward, suggesting a move to 13,000 or more over the next several years. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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The Long View- Professional Edition

Lee Adler — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 12:15:00 +0000

The bulls will remain in control unless the bears can hit these keys.

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Long Term Outlook Update- Professional Edition

Lee Adler — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 18:57:10 +0000

The market is on the cusp of either signaling a change in the secular bear market, or confirming it. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

In addition to regular updates on the long term outlook, get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Don’t be in the dark! Get multiple time frame cyclical, regression channel, and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update.

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Long Term Structures Degrading- Professional Edition

Lee Adler — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 19:07:27 +0000

The market has now broken the bottom of the 3 year cycle wave projection. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

This report updates long term charts and analysis.

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