A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Long Term Outlook
Past History Says Bear Market Starts Now
Not much has changed since I last updated this report in September. The 1968-73 template may still be instructive. There’s much more in this report including a drilldown into weekly charts for a better idea of where things currently stand and where probability suggests they will head from here. The Professional Edition Daily Market...
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What Fed Does Now Could Skew Longer Term Cycles
The following is an excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Long Term Outlook Update. The link for subscriber access to the full report with 13 pages of charts, analysis and conclusions is below. For the past several years I have alluded to the similarity between this market and the 1969-71 period. That...
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Long Term Outlook On Course- Sell Strength
For the past several years I have alluded to the similarity between this market and the 1969-71 period. Now (6/8/11) 27 months since the March 2009 low, this market is still looking a lot like that one.
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1971-72 Redux Update
This market continues to follow the 1971-72 template and the Fed’s sponsorship of the rally has probably kept the market on course for a similar outcome.
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1550 or Bust
Fed intervention has broken very long term cycle norms, but the market continues to follow the 1968-1972 template. This report examines where we are versus that period, concluding that the uptrend could last for months more and lead to all time highs in the S&P 500. Will I be forced to rewrite this tomorrow?...
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When The Them Decide Enough Is Enough- Professional Edition
When will this uptrend end? How high is it likely to go. This long term update examines those questions and reaches some interesting conclusions. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information...
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Bulls Make The Rules- Professional Edition Long Term Update
As I left it in the last update in mid September, a September close above 11,000 on the Dow would indicate on the quarterly bar chart that the 36 year cycle wave had turned at least flat. The market didn’t quite make it in September, but did in October. It would now need to...
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The Long View- Professional Edition
The bulls will remain in control unless the bears can hit these keys.
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Long Term Outlook Update- Professional Edition
The market is on the cusp of either signaling a change in the secular bear market, or confirming it. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you...
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Long Term Structures Degrading- Professional Edition
The market has now broken the bottom of the 3 year cycle wave projection. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that...
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Long Term Technicals Line Up With Liquidity- Professional Edition
Over the past few weeks the Dow has been shoved back within the long term channel projections. That changes things. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give...
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1971 Template Broken- Professional Edition
The Dow has broken through resistance indicated by long term channel projections. There’s a question whether this is a breakout or a severely overextended market. Meanwhile the similarities between the cyclical patterns of the past 3 years and the 1969-71 period have begun to diverge. We are in an extreme environment, with critical implications...
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CORRECTED- Still Following 1971 – Professional Edition
UPDATE- The previous posting was linked to an earlier report. This has now been corrected. The 1969-71 period has continued to serve well as a map for the current market. The 1970 rally ended after 11 months suggesting that in the current market a top would occur in January of this year. The correction...
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Like 1971, Only Different- Professional Edition
The 1969-71 period has continued to serve well as a map for the current market, suggesting that a top would occur in January. That led to a correction in 1971, followed by another upleg to an all time high in 1972. Are we, in the present day, about to veer off the road? Click...
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Critical Juncture- Professional Edition Long Term Update
The market has reached a cyclical juncture where a significant correction occurred in the most similar market in the past. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give...
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Long Term Outlook Update- Professional Edition
There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month, but there were a few hints of an approaching top. Here’s what to look for. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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Long Term Outlook Update- Professional Edition
There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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The Insanity Train- Repeat, Repeat, Repeat – Professional Edition
There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month. The object of the game would appear to be figuring out how beat the crowd off the insanity train just before the end of the line. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try...
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Riding The Insanity Train- Professional Edition Long Term Update
There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month. The object of the game would appear to be figuring out how beat the crowd off the insanity train just before the end of the line. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try...
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Long Term Outlook- Professional Edition
The outlook remains consist with that posted in recent months with only incremental progressive changes that could lead to a shortable top by September. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information...
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Long Term Outlook- Professional Edition
There is little change in the outlook since the last update published in early June. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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Long Term Outlook Update -Professional Edition
The market did nothing over the past month to preclude the idea that it may be embarking on a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, similar to that which took place between May of 1970 and January 1973. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the...
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Look From Both Sides Now – Professional Edition
There are still more signs this month that the market may be embarking on a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, similar to that which took place between May of 1970 and January 1973. Cyclically, there are many similarities between the current market action and the initial leg up in 1970, and...
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Long Term Chart Different Conclusion
One of the posters over on Capitalstool.com’s Stool Pigeons Wire posted this chart from the blog of Barry Ritholtz. My take on the chart is different. What it says to me is that we are only now just half way down in this market. Here’s how it looks to me.
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Bleaker Street – Professional Edition Long Term Update
One way of depicting the market’s 36 year cycle is with an 18 year rate of change. The chart below shows the Dow since 1929 in quarterly bars. While an 8 year rate of change has reached levels associated with earlier major secular bottoms, the 18 year rate of change still has a way...
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Dow 3600!!! Watch – Professional Edition
This report continues to chronicle the step by step process of moving toward the market’s long term objectives. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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Dow 3600 Detour – Professional Edition
This report continues to chronicle the step by step process of moving toward the market’s long term objectives. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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Dow 3600! Professional Edition Long Term Update
This report continues to chronicle the step by step process of moving toward the market’s long term objectives. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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Dow 3600! – Professional Edition Long Term Update
A few years ago, a distinguished media pundit wrote a book called Dow 36,000! I have now written the antidote. In the last report posted at the beginning of October, I noted that the market was in the midst of “a bear market that appeared headed for the 8500 vicinity, where it should find...
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