Long Term Outlook

UPDATE- The previous posting was linked to an earlier report. This has now been corrected. The 1969-71 period has continued to serve well as a map for the current market. The 1970 rally ended after 11 months suggesting that in the current market a top would occur in January of this year. The correction...
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The 1969-71 period has continued to serve well as a map for the current market, suggesting that a top would occur in January. That led to a correction in 1971, followed by another upleg to an all time high in 1972. Are we, in the present day, about to veer off the road? ...
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The market has reached a cyclical juncture where a significant correction occurred in the most similar market in the past. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give...
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There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month, but there were a few hints of an approaching top. Here’s what to look for. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within...
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There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund....
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There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month.  The object of the game would appear to be figuring out how beat the crowd off the insanity train just before the end of the line. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try...
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There was again very little change in the long term structures over the past month.  The object of the game would appear to be figuring out how beat the crowd off the insanity train just before the end of the line. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition...
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The outlook remains consist with that posted in recent months with only incremental progressive changes that could lead to a shortable top by September. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information...
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There is little change in the outlook since the last update published in early June. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s...
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The market did nothing over the past month to preclude the idea that it may be embarking on a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, similar to that which took place between May of 1970 and January 1973. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers)....
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There are still more signs this month that the market may be embarking on a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, similar to that which took place between May of 1970 and January 1973. Cyclically, there are many similarities between the current market action and the initial leg up in 1970, and...
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Comparing today’s market with 1929-32 is an interesting exercise. Today’s market is closely tracking that market in terms of time and rate of decline. Month to month direction is not exact, but it’s close. There was a short rally at this point in 1931 but it was inconsequential in the big picture. I don’t...
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One of the posters over on Capitalstool.com’s Stool Pigeons Wire posted this chart from the blog of Barry Ritholtz. My take on the chart is different. What it says to me is that we are only now just half way down in this market. Here’s how it looks to me.
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One way of depicting the market’s 36 year cycle is with an 18 year rate of change. The chart below shows the Dow since 1929 in quarterly bars. While an 8 year rate of change has reached levels associated with earlier major secular bottoms, the 18 year rate of change still has a way...
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This report continues to chronicle the step by step process of moving toward the market’s long term objectives. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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This report continues to chronicle the step by step process of moving toward the market’s long term objectives. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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This report continues to chronicle the step by step process of moving toward the market’s long term objectives. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a...
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A few years ago, a distinguished media pundit wrote a book called Dow 36,000! I have now written the antidote. In the last report posted at the beginning of October, I noted that the market was in the midst of “a bear market that appeared headed for the 8500 vicinity, where it should find major trend...
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While the long term update for this month has yet to be posted, the charts are available to subscribers. Today’s Radio Free Wall Street podcast includes a discussion of the long term structures beginning around the 44th minute. Subscribers can listen to the podcast here. Charts Dow long term cycle chart  Same chart, zoomed1995-present Dow 1956-70 Another long...
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A preliminary 8 year cycle projection of 620 would have to be given some credence if the market breaks 1100 and remains below that level at the end of October. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If,...
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The market continues to conform to the long term forecast that has remained little changed since late last year. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you...
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The market continues to conform to the long term forecast that has remained little changed since late last year. So not much has changed since our last update at the end of June. The market has merely reinforced that we are on the right track. Still, we need to keep our eye on certain...
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The market continues to conform to the long term forecast that has remained little changed since late last year. So not much has changed since our last update at the end of May. The market has merely reinforced that we are on the right track. Still, we need to keep our eye on certain...
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Last week’s selloff gave the bear case new life on the long term charts. Whether that’s sustained, or the bull comes back depends on several important technical keys. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that...
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The market faces a big picture moment of truth over the next couple of weeks. Depending on how things play out, it will have huge implications for the market’s long term outlook. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty...
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The Dow was hanging around near the top of the 36 year cycle band for most of 2007. The question through the year was whether it would reverse and head down or break out. The question has been answered in early 2008. Click here to download complete report in pdf format...
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If we compare the current cycle to the last 36 year cycle the market is approximately where it was in the late 1960s. That was followed by a decade long secular bear market in an era of raging inflation. What might this mean for a possible deflationary environment in an era of credit contraction?...
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Not much has changed since our last look at the long term structures back on November 11. The Dow has been at the top of the 36 year cycle band for the past 8 months. The question has been whether it would reverse or break out. It’s still not answered. The 36 year cycle...
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The Dow has been at the top of the 36 year cycle band for the past 7 months. The question has been whether it would reverse or break out. That question may now be in the process of being answered. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try...
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The Dow is at the top of the 36 year cycle band. The question is whether it will now reverse or break out. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful,...
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