Email Bulletins Archive

An archive of Wall Street Examiner Email Bulletins

Claims Data Affirms That Government Shout Down Had No Lasting Impact, But Stocks Still Dangerously Extended

First time unemployment claims essentially met expectations this week as ‘conomists had one of their rare correct guesses. But I should not be so hard on the ‘conomist crowd. The seasonal adjustment factor applied to the comparable week of the year over the prior 10 years has varied by +/-30,000 claims from year to year.…

Claims Snap Back to Trend After Shout Down Ends

First time unemployment claims slightly missed expectations again this week as economists were again unable to gauge the impact of the government shout down.  The media continues to assess blame for the misses to the California computer glitch. No one has given any details. We have no facts on that supposed reason for the data…

Household Survey Shows Tepid Growth in Total and Full Time Jobs, No Effect from QE

Earlier we looked at non-farm payrolls, which come from the BLS the Current Employment Statistics Survey or CES, a survey of business establishments. The BLS also does a survey of households. The household survey or CPS — Current Population Survey– sometimes tells a different story from the establishment survey. It’s also important in that it breaks…

September Payrolls On Trend, August Revised Up As Expected After Misleading the Fed

The BLS reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 148,000 in September nonfarm payrolls Tuesday, missing the consensus estimates of around 183,000. That comes as no surprise to those of us following the real time data on Federal Withholding Tax collections, which weakened in September. As I wrote last month, ” Based on the strength…

Real Time Withholding Tax Data Accurately Forecast September Payrolls And The August Revision

Here’s what I wrote Saturday in the Professional Edition Treasury update about what the real time withholding tax data told us about the likely non-farm payrolls report. Because of the radical slowing in withholding taxes in September, I would expect a decline in the growth rate of non farm payrolls. The currently reported consensus estimate…

Banks Earnings Disappoint But Here’s Why That Was (Or Should Have Been) No Surprise

This Fox Business video reports on the disappointing bank earnings reported in recent days. Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com After this October 11, 2013 video, C disappointed and JPM dropped a bombshell, reporting a quarterly loss, which was blamed on litigation, but that was probably a good cover for some trading losses as well.…

Skewing of Initial Unemployment Claims Ends This Week- Here’s What To Look For

First time unemployment claims missed expectations again this week as economists continue to fail to understand the impact of the government shutdown.  Over the next two weeks, those effects will wash out, and we’ll get a return to “clean” data which will give us a clearer picture of the state of the trend. The Labor Department…

Huge Jump in Initial Unemployment Claims Is Not About A Computer Glitch

First time unemployment claims rose sharply as of October 5, as the effects of the chaos in Washington began to ripple through the economy. However, as I pointed out last week, the recent strength reflected in the claims data “should change radically in the weeks ahead. In the short run the data will weaken, but…

Let’s All Panic While Investors Still Flock To Short Term Treasury Bills- No Evidence of Weaker Demand

Mainstream media pundits have been crying in their beer over the past several days over investors running away from short term Treasury paper because of default fears. They cite the huge rise in the rates on T-bills, which exploded all the way up to six one hundredths of one percent on the 26 week bill.…