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	<title>The Wall Street Examiner &#187; Economics</title>
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	<description>Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd.</description>
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		<title>Economists Surprised Again By Unemployment Claims, Should Not Have Been</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/02/09/economists-surprised-again-by-unemployment-claims-but-they-should-not-have-been/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/02/09/economists-surprised-again-by-unemployment-claims-but-they-should-not-have-been/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:50:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic and Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Top Stories]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[50 States]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Current Rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decline]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Deterioration]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Federal Department Of Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government Reports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government Series]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mainstream Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Time]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Surprise]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Survey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unemployment Claims]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Wh]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=72625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The mainstream media proclaimed an unexpected &#8220;beat&#8221; of the first time unemployment claims number today. The fake, seasonally fudged number dropped to 358,000 in the week ended February 4. According to Bloomberg, the consensus of economists&#8217; expectations was for 370,000. Aside from the fact that whether economists get a forecast right or not seems to be completely random, two facts stand out. First, the number that they are looking at is made up and fictional. Second the trend of the actual weekly number has been unflinchingly within a couple of points of an annual rate of decline of 9-10% for the past 18 months. As long as that trend is intact, there will be no reason to ever expect the weekly number to mean anything other than steady as she goes at the current rate. In fact, there&#8217;s really little point to forecasting the number on a weekly basis, because typically a big change one way one week is reversed the following week. What counts is the trend, which is another reason why all the old guys on Wall Street are so fond of repeating, &#8220;The trend is your friend.&#8221; It&#8217;s nice that the claims number is a weekly number, [...]]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Dry Bulk Shipping Hits All Time Low</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/02/06/dry-bulk-shipping-hits-all-time-low/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/02/06/dry-bulk-shipping-hits-all-time-low/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:35:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Belisarius</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contributors- Economic and Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic and Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tainted Alpha]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Abundance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltic Dry Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bankruptcies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese Ports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dry Bulk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dry Bulk Weekly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iron Ore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shipping]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ships]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stockpile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stockpiles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thermal Coal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Week Ending February]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.taintedalpha.com/?p=13895</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Baltic dry index fell 10.9% last week and has reaching all-time low; Capesize Index was down 2.0%; Panamax Index fell 15.0%; Supramax Index was down 12.5%; Handysize Index fell 10.3%.

]]></description>
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		<title>Tomorrow Is A Big Day &#8211; Why Fed Should Not Act</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/01/24/tomorrow-is-a-big-day-why-fed-should-not-act/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/01/24/tomorrow-is-a-big-day-why-fed-should-not-act/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jan 2012 17:16:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic and Financial]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Email Bulletins Archive]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Clue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ecb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Excrement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Executive Summary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foolishness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mainstream Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manipulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manipulators]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mayhem]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal Bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Professional Edition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pundits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rest Of The World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sinks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sludge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unintended Consequences]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Utter Waste]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=70692</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tomorrow is a big day, with the FOMC announcement and the Fed revealing what it wants you to think about what it thinks it&#8217;s going to think it wants you to think. Or something like that. This Fed &#8220;tranparency&#8221; thing has been covered to death in the mainstream media. I think it&#8217;s another utter waste of time. I want to know what the Fed is doing, not what it wants you to think, and that&#8217;s what I report on every week in my reports to subscribers. It&#8217;s hard enough to know what the Fed is actually doing, but if you can get a handle on that (and, not to mention, the ECB), then you&#8217;ll have a leg up on the crowd, most of whom don&#8217;t have a clue.  With that in mind, here&#8217;s what I wrote on Saturday in the executive summary of the Fed update in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition (Liquidity Is Bullish Is All). _____________________________________________________ Those who don&#8217;t know me well have sometimes accused me of being a permabear. Those of you who do know me via these [Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition] reports know that I always strive to be just like Faux News, &#8220;fair [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Retail Sales Not Too Bad</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/01/12/retail-sales-not-too-bad/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/01/12/retail-sales-not-too-bad/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jan 2012 18:59:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic and Financial]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Artifact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consensus Estimate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deep Breath]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Discretionary Spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[False Impression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gas Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gas Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gasoline Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gasoline Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Message]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Outlets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Changes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reflection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales Trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seasonal Adjustment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Truth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=69213</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While the media was trumpeting a miss on retail sales, the truth, as usual, was somewhat different than the media message. The major media outlets reported that a 0.1% gain missed analysts&#8217; consensus estimate of a gain of 0.3% for the month of December. As usual, the report was stated in seasonally adjusted terms, which often has nothing to do with reality. The reality is that retail sales were up by 15.7% month to month, and 6.2% year over year in December. Before you say &#8220;Wow,&#8221; take a deep breath. December is always up big versus November. That&#8217;s why the economists apply a seasonal adjustment. The problem is that the adjustment may obscure what&#8217;s really going on. That&#8217;s why I look at total sales before adjustment and compare that to the month to month change in prior years. The December 2011 increase of 15.6% compares with 16.6% in December 2010 and 18% in December 2009. So it does show some slowing. It&#8217;s also important to adjust for changing price levels in order to see just how much of the year to year change is &#8220;real&#8221;. Adjusted for inflation, the real gain in sales was only 2.3%, not 6.2%. I like [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Let&#8217;s Fold Vegas</title>
		<link>http://dharmajoint.blogspot.com/2011/11/lets-fold-vegas.html</link>
		<comments>http://dharmajoint.blogspot.com/2011/11/lets-fold-vegas.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Nov 2011 20:22:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dude</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic and Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fruits And Vegetables]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Invisible Hand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jp Morgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lake Mead]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Large Portion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Las Vegas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Occupy Wall St.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poker Hand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poker Hands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Southern California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theme Park]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?guid=30f93c647f1467e50d0da45bfa7d6291</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If US cities were poker hands, America's invisible hand would have  folded Las Vegas long ago for there is nothing capitalist about  gambling.  Aside from being an anti-capitalist theme park (about which,  more later), Vegas, as it is affectionately k...]]></description>
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		<title>Retail Sales Reports Give Me Gas</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/15/retail-sales-reports-give-me-gas/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/15/retail-sales-reports-give-me-gas/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2011 22:01:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Amazon]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Rose]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=61719</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It just doesn&#8217;t get any more bullish than today&#8217;s retail sales report. Or so you would think if you only read the mainstream media reports. &#8220;More spending at online stores such as Amazon and electronics and applicance stores boosted retail sales by 0.5% in October, following a strong 1.1% surge in September,&#8221; shouted Marketwatch. &#8220;Retail sales rose more than projected in October as American shoppers gave the economy a boost at the start of the fourth quarter, &#8220;enthused Bloomberg. The Wall Street Journal was a little less effusive: &#8220;U.S. retail sales rose in October as Americans spent their dollars at electronics stores and on the Internet.&#8221; The stories noted that the data beat economists&#8217; expectations. Since economists&#8217; tend to beat, miss, or get the number right on a seemingly random basis, I don&#8217;t know why anyone still cares. Someone should put together the data on how often they get it right, and then ask the question, &#8220;Tell me again why we are paying these people.&#8221;  I haven&#8217;t heard of any university economics departments or Wall Street brokerages, nor certainly any financial infomercial media organizations, lining up to do that research and write that report. The last thing they&#8217;re interested in [...]]]></description>
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		<title>First Time Claims Data a Renoir</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/10/first-time-claims-data-a-renoir/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/10/first-time-claims-data-a-renoir/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2011 19:17:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Department Of Labor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eye Of The Beholder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Initial Claims]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Labor And Birth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moving Averages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Photo Realism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Patterns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Renoir]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seasonal Data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Snapshot Photo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistician]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unemployment Claims]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Variances]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=60904</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every week the US Department of Labor and Birth/Death Adjustments dutifully reports two sets of numbers on first time and continuing unemployment claims. One set is the actual number of people filing claims as tabulated by the 50 states. The other is a fictionalized number which purports to smooth out the seasonal variances so that the trend can be represented more clearly. One number is real. The other is fake, but is like a work of abstract impressionaism. It represents the statistician&#8217;s impression of reality, and for some people that works. Hey, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I like photo realism myself. Most of the time the fake seasonal numbers paint a pretty picture more or less representing the trend. The problem is that it makes it impossible to see how the rate of job loss is really doing in real time. For that we need to look at the actual snapshot photo and compare it with past such photos. That way it&#8217;s possible to quickly determine whether the picture is getting better, worse, or about the same as past periods. Using the seasonally massaged data, that&#8217;s not possible. That becomes critical at real turning points when [...]]]></description>
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		<title>No Truth Coming From Mortgage Bankers Ass.</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/09/no-truth-coming-from-mortgage-bankers-ass/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/09/no-truth-coming-from-mortgage-bankers-ass/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2011 19:53:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Charts]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Housing]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Close Approximation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fraud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Graph]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Index Level]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Index Levels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indexes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Last Time]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Applications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Bankers Association]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Purchase]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moving Average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percentage Changes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prospective Member]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Purchase Applications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Temerity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Test Chart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Truth Out]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=60808</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Apparently the MBAss (Mortgage Bankers Association) didn&#8217;t like the fact that someone in the financial blogo-wackosphere actually had the temerity to make use of real, hard data, that they hadn&#8217;t massaged. Now, not only do they not report the actual index level of their seasonally smoothed applications indexes, the charts of the not seasonally adjusted indexes have disappeared from Bloomberg.com in the past week. I doubt that Bloomberg would have pulled them on their own. Seems more likely that the MBAss wasn&#8217;t too happy about anyone actually reporting the truth. So unless Bloomberg relents or I can find the data elsewhere, it looks like last week&#8217;s report will be the last time we get to see what the actual purchase applications look like. For now, I&#8217;ll return to looking at the seasonally smoothed data which, while not the actual numbers, should give us an idea of the trend. The MBAss stopped reporting the actual index levels about a year ago, but they still report the weekly percentage changes, so it is possible to reproduce a close approximation of their index. Of course, if the news gets bad enough, like if purchase apps drop to new lows, they can always stop [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Italiano Absurdo</title>
		<link>http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=4267</link>
		<comments>http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=4267#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2011 14:22:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Winter (Economic and Market) Watch</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Today's Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Attention Shifts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austerity Program]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budget]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Debt Levels]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?guid=b8d4d14478eaa68e33cc5e7bc4e4097e</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The market rationale that the Berlusconi toss out is bullish is patently absurd. In reality Berlusconi inherited a sinking debt trap ship, and already ran a decent austerity program for Italy, keeping them in the game for the last few years. He also ke...]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Housing Outlook Clouding Up Again, And It&#8217;s Not Just Supply</title>
		<link>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/08/housing-outlook-clouding-up-again-and-its-not-just-supply/</link>
		<comments>http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2011/11/08/housing-outlook-clouding-up-again-and-its-not-just-supply/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2011 01:03:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lee Adler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money and The Fed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Professional Edition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3 Month]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Collapse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contracts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cutting Edge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Trial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Outlook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percentage Terms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pros And Cons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pros Cons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seasonality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subscribers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thirty Days]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=60708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Housing data over the past month has weakened. Part of that is normal seasonality, but the drop in contracts on existing homes in September was the worst in percentage terms since the housing collapse began. Although I believe that the supply problem is overblown, the last thing the market needs is further weakening in demand. But there&#8217;s more to the story. Here are the pros and cons. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). including 24 pages of charts and clear, cutting edge analysis that you can use to gain an edge in the market. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don&#8217;t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It&#8217;s that simple. 30 day risk free trial for new subscribers. Click here for more information. 3 month subscription to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition, Money-Liquidity-Real Estate package, renewing automatically unless canceled. Price: $89.00 By clicking this button, I agree to the Wall Street Examiner&#8217;s Terms of Use.]]></description>
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