A couple of minor technical problems called “business” and “life” have now intruded on my increasingly bogged down publication schedule that, in the interest...
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Economics
May HSBC/Markit China PMI At 48.7
HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 49.3 to 48.7.
Large discrepancy between HSBC/Markit and “official” PMI.
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Tanker Weekly – May 21, 2012
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 0.7%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.3%.
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Dry Bulk Weekly – May 21, 2012
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.2%; Panamax Index fell 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 0.4%; Handysize Index rose 3.7%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower on risk-off. Steel stockpiles fell f...
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Weakening Federal Withholding Tax Collections Do Note Bode Well For Employment
This report is an excerpt from the permanent Employment Chart page. The edge that Federal Withholding Tax collections had held over last year continued to narrow last week, suggesting a weakening employment picture in May. The chart below compares current withholding tax collections with last year on the same date. This year collections have...
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Unemployment Claims Like Barbecue- Lower But Slower
While the mainstream media was reporting that jobless claims were steady last week, the real picture was more nuanced. The media reports only the seasonally smoothed number, which can obscure what’s really going on and is often late in recognizing trend changes because of the inherent smoothing. I liken it to Impressionist Art. It’s...
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Real Deal on Retail- Even Worse Than They Said
The headline number for retail sales today was an increase of 0.1% month to month, seasonally adjusted, which exactly met the conomic consensual sextimate of 0.1%. Here’s how Bloomberg put it. U.S. Retail Sales Cool After Warm-Weather Spree: Economy Retail sales rose in April at the slowest pace of the year as Americans took...
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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview) – Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The May Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded in New York State at a moderate pace. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 17.1. The new orders index inched up to 8.3, and the shipments index shot up eighteen points to 24.1. The indexes for both prices paid and...
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Market’s Liquidity Indicators Begin To Tilt Bearish – With Free Excerpt
The composite liquidity indicator downticked last week on small declines in most of its components. We know that the downtick in the Fed’s pumping to Primary Dealers is temporary, but the weakening in other indicators may not be. Over the course of this latest surge, most of the cash has been targeted at the...
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Chart of US and Euro Zone industrial production | Reuters
Chart of US and Euro Zone industrial production. From Scott Barber, Reuters
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Money Market and Mutual Fund Flows Charts Updated
Equity Mutual Fund Flows The permanent page for these charts is Mutual Fund and Money Market Fund Flows Charts. The charts will be updated there regularly. April projected based on weekly figures. While not a primary liquidity driver, this chart is useful as a peripheral market indicator. It has begun to turn intermediate term bearish...
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Dimon, Corzine, and Other Banksters Will Face (a) Hard Time in 2012 Says American Banker
Francine McKenna, writing for the American Banker, thinks that some big time gangbanksters may finally be called to account soon. I think the Obama administration will pull Jamie Dimon down along with Jon Corzine. They’ll do this to regain momentum with working-class voters—the 99%. Winning the November election, less than a year away,...
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China New Loan Issuance Slows Down In April; Rate Of Money Supply High
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.5% y-o-y in April vs. 18.1% rise in March.
Chinese banks issued CNY 682 billion of new loans in April vs. CNY 1,010 billion in March and consensus of CNY 780 billion. New loan issuance first four mo...
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Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Larger Than Expected In April
China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.
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Rig Count Monthly – May 8, 2012
Massive fall in gas drilling in recent months coupled with large increase in oil drilling.
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Chinese Industrial Production Rose 9.3% In April
Industrial production in China rose 9.3 % y-o-y in April; March reading was at 11.9%. Consensus was at 12.2%.
Another bad piece of data.
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China Retail Sales Up 14.1% In April
China retail sales rose 14.1% y-o-y in April vs. 15.2% March reading. Consensus was at 15.1%.
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China Fixed Asset Investments Rose 20.2% In April
China fixed asset investments were up 20.2% y-o-y in April; March reading was at 20.9%. Consensus was at 20.5%.
Lowest reading since 2002.
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China April CPI Inflation At 3.4%; PPI Inflation At -0.7%
China Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% in April, vs. 3.4% consensus and 3.6% March reading. Food inflation rose fell from 7.5 to 7.0%.
China Producer Price Index fell to -0.7% from -0.3% in April. Consensus was at -.5%.
The chart looks outright bad.
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Justice Department Settles Another Bankster Fraud Suit for Peanuts
Where are the perp walks? The United States has settled a civil fraud lawsuit against DEUTSCHE BANK AG, DB STRUCTURED PRODUCTS, INC., DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, INC. (collectively “DEUTSCHE BANK” or the “DEUTSCHE BANK defendants”) and MORTGAGEIT, INC. (“MORTGAGEIT”). The Government’s lawsuit, filed May 3, 2011, sought damages and civil penalties under the False...
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Fed Sells Part of Maiden Lane III in yet another draining operation. Shhhh!
The Fed conducted yet another one of those little draining operations that keep its balance sheet shrinking slightly. Of course it never reports these sales in those terms, nor does it explain its balance sheet shrinkage. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) today announced that it has sold...
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Initial Claims (Actual, NSA) and Federal Withholding Taxes Point The Way in Real Time
This is an update of the Employment Charts page. Initial Claims Charts Updated May 8, 2012 Actual, not seasonally manipulated, weekly initial unemployment claims, while volatile week to week, have continued to decrease at a relatively constant rate over time since mid 2010. In the week ended May 5, actual claims rose by...
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How Wall Street Killed Financial Reform | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone
Two years ago, when he signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, President Barack Obama bragged that he’d dealt a crushing blow to the extravagant financial corruption that had caused the global economic crash in 2008. “These reforms represent the strongest consumer financial protections in history,” the president told an adoring...
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Rig Count Monthly – May 8, 2012 | Tainted Alpha
(For April 2012) Number of crude oil drilling rigs in the U.S. rose for 37 in the last month; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 52. Massive fall in gas drilling in recent months coupled with large increase in oil drilling. On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell...
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Not Much Jolt in JOLTS
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Updated May 8, 2012 This one’s a bit of a lagger. Current data is for March. Some mainstream journopundits were touting the “good news” today. Of course we already knew March was strong from the payrolls data. This is like cheering a ballgame played in March, and...
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Dry Bulk Weekly – May 7, 2012 | Tainted Alpha
May 7th, 2012 by Belisarius (For The Week Ending May 4, 2012) Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%. Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat....
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ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate Moves Out Of Negative Teritorry | Tainted Alpha
(For The Week Ending April 27, 2012) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending April 27, 2012 was reported unchanged y-o-y. Prior reading was at 0.5%. via ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Rate Moves Out Of Negative Teritorry | Tainted Alpha.
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U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – May 4, 2012
U.S. railroads originated 283,080 carloads, down 4.2% compared with the same week in 2011 and down 3.3% in relation to 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.3%.
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U.S. Petroleum Weekly – May 4, 2012
The oil price is holding up quite well despite weaker demand and higher stockpiles. The reason for that are tightness in the brent market (which reflects in other markets via. arbitrage) and geopolitical risks (mostly related to Iran nuclear program).
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April Challenger Job-Cuts At 40,559- Tainted Alpha
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 40,559 in April vs. 37,880 in March.
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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 365.000; Down 27.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 365.000 vs. 379.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.
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