Housing

Housing Inflation Ain’t Recovery- Check Out This Chart!

Let’s call a spade a spade, please. What we have here is housing “inflation,” hardly housing “recovery.” Housing prices are rising 10-15% per year, but nobody in the media is calling it what it is. There’s a wall of silence. We have narrowed the definition of inflation to such a degree that nothing is “inflation”…

Pending Home Sales Didn’t Really Miss

The news media reported yesterday that the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for December was a huge miss, falling far short of economists’ consensus expectations. This was based on the seasonally adjusted data, which is frequently misleading because the statistical manipulation often obscures the real trend. I reviewed the actual, not seasonally adjusted data. It…

Slow Growth in Single Family Housing Starts But Strong Multifamily Suggests A Boom That May Outpace Demand

Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 872,000. This is 15.0 percent (±12.1%) above the revised August estimate of 758,000 and is 34.8 percent (±18.2%) above the September 2011 rate of 647,000, according to the US Census Bureau. That was way above the median consensus economists’ expectations for…

Normal Seasonal Downtick Leaves New Home Sales 24% Ahead of Last Year

The Commerce Department’s actual, not seasonally adjusted, data for August dropped to 31,000 units from 34,000 in July. Such downticks are normal for the second half of the year. Sales totaled 25,000 units in August 2011. In the Wells Fargo- NAHB builders survey, builders reported improved sales and increased traffic in September. Both reached new…

Weekly Housing Indicators Show Price Gains Continuing, Supply Still Contracting

The 30 day moving average of US house sales for the 30 days ended July 26  showed prices continuing to rise while sales volume declined for the first time since March, in data reported by Dataquick. There were 198,090 sales recorded for the period, versus 220,425 for the 30 days ended July 19. This represented a…

Pending Home Sales Data Shows Activity Leveling Off- Is Tight Supply To Blame?

Sales contracts for June (what the NAR refers to as “Pending Home Sales”) dipped slightly from the May peak. The month to month decline of an equivalent of approximately 3,000 sales was significantly weaker than June 2011’s gain of 23,600. This suggests that the demand recovery is leveling off. The Realtors are blaming it on…

Media and Market Overreact As Usual to Weaker Housing Data

The mainstream financial media breathlessly proclaimed the worst housing data in x months this morning, on the release of the Commerce Department’s monthly new home sales data. I won’t go into the details of the reporting, which you have seen by now. I’ll just give you the facts and let you decide for yourself how…