Record Low Initial Unemployment Claims Correlate With Looming Stock Market Collapses

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Contrary to conventional wisdom, extremely low initial unemployment claims have an ominous track record. Since the initial unemployment claims data first set a record low in September 2013, I have pointed out that record low claims suggest a distorted, overheated, bubble top economy. On each occasion over the past 42 years when claims have reached a…

Loan Liars

No, this isn’t about liar loans. It’s about the liars in the financial “news” media who twist the facts to suit whatever their point happens to be that day. Here are the facts about bank lending in the US.

Initial Unemployment Claims Deteriorate, Flashing Warning Signal

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

The string of record low initial unemployment claims which began last September may have ended this week. After nearly 11 months at extremes that have only existed before at the top of the internet/tech bubble in 1999-2000 and the housing bubble top in 2006-07, initial claims backed off slightly. The question is whether this is just a temporary…

Jobs Data Shows No Gains From QE/ZIRP, But Allows Fed Withdrawal

Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Quantitative Easing- Click to enlarge

The seasonally finagled headline number for nonfarm payrolls for July increased 209,000. The consensus expectation of Wall Street conomists was for a gain of 220,000. The Wall Street media judged it a “miss.” But the number is the number. The Wall Street economist crowd’s guess was only a little off, considering the total numbers involved. The market plays this…

Are Wages Really Rising or Has Wall Street Knee Jerk Media Missed The Story Again?

Employment Costs By Sector- Click to enlarge

The Wall Street-Washington, self congratulatory media echo chamber press release repeaters got all excited this morning about a bump in the seasonally adjusted headline number for the BLS employment cost index. That number rose by 0.7% on a quarter to quarter basis. The Wall Street economist crowd’s consensus guess was for an increase of 0.4%. Seasonally…

Beware! Jobless Claims Fall By 30,000, Continuing 10 Month String of Record Lows

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

With yesterday’s 4% GDP print it’s becoming clear that the observation I had reported for several months that the US economy is overheated in key areas is starting to creep into mainstream consciousness. When you pay attention to actual data, it’s easy to see the facts of what is happening on the ground well before mainstream economists and the…