Economics

Sing LA LA LA and Pretend Housing Doesn’t Count – That’s How Conomists Ignore Inflation

Home Sale Prices and Volume- Click to enlarge

In the hall of mirrors where conomists live, there’s no housing inflation. When the prices of consumption goods rise it’s “inflation.” But when housing prices rise, it’s not inflation, it’s “appreciation.” It’s like stock prices. There’s literally no stock price inflation. There’s “multiple expansion,” or “appreciation,” but there’s no “inflation.” That’s how establishment conomists can claim there’s no…

First Time Claims Balloon But Is It A Warning?

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 294,000. The Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess was 280,000. In the game of pin the tail on the number, this week was a miss. According to the Department of Labor the actual, unmanipulated numbers were as follows. “The advance number of…

Here’s Why Strong Retail Sales Per Capita Ex Gas Chirps Like A Canary

Real Retail Sales Per Capita- Click to enlarge

The headline seasonally adjusted retail sales number slightly missed conomists’ expectations this morning, but beneath the headlines, the actual hard data tells a different story. Nominal retail sales, not seasonally adjusted and not adjusted for inflation (or deflation), rose by $54.9 billion in March from February. March is always an up month. This month was better than…

Non Farm Payrolls- What A Picture Is Worth

Non Farm Payrolls- Click to enlarge

What is a picture worth? Think of all the words you read about Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and then look at the picture. This is the actual, not seasonally adjusted data. What has changed? Please understand that I’m not saying that this is bullish. In fact the opposite. Markets crumble when central banks pull the plug.…

Here’s Why We Appreciate Housing Sales and The Fraud MUST Go On

Existing Home Closed Sales and Contracts- Click to enlarge

“Sales of previously owned homes rose in February, a sign that the housing market is healing…” That’s how the Wall Street Urinal reported today as it pointed to a 1.2% increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA)  nonsense National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing home sales (EHS) number. The reported figure is an  annualized number, multiplying the monthly…