Non Farm Payrolls Faux Headline Number Is Misleading

Nonfarm Payrolls- Actual- Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls headline number for jobs added in August was 142,000.  The consensus guesstimate of Wall Street economists had been for a gain of 223,000. Traders took the “miss” as bullish. There’s just one problem. The impression given by the headline number is wrong. The actual, unadjusted jobs count was right on trend.…

Record Low Claims Send Year Long Warning Signal That End Is Nigh


Extremely low initial unemployment claims have an ominous track record. Record low claims suggest a distorted, overheated, bubble top economy. On both occasions in this century when claims have reached a similar percentage of total nonfarm payrolls at this time of year, the stock market has subsequently collapsed within a few months. The overheating that has been indicated in the…

Let’s Get Real- Manufacturing Didn’t Suck But Construction Spending Did

Real Construction Spending- Click to enlarge

By now you have heard of the great news on factory orders and construction spending in July. Construction spending beat consensus expectations. The pundits had expected a 1% increase on the seasonally finagled headline number for construction and got 1.8%. The headline seasonally adjusted July increase in factory orders was a whopping 10.5%. Wall Street…

The Real Force Behind US Economic “Growth,” Such As It Is, Is Not The Fed

Industrial Production - Click to enlarge

As the stock market has scooted off into Fed driven bubble territory over the past year, industrial production, on the surface at least, appears to be expanding quite nicely. After briefly going negative in mid 2013, the annual growth rate turned upward and has been accelerating, reaching 4.3% in July. This measure is by units…

Record Low Initial Unemployment Claims Correlate With Looming Stock Market Collapses

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Contrary to conventional wisdom, extremely low initial unemployment claims have an ominous track record. Since the initial unemployment claims data first set a record low in September 2013, I have pointed out that record low claims suggest a distorted, overheated, bubble top economy. On each occasion over the past 42 years when claims have reached a…

Loan Liars

No, this isn’t about liar loans. It’s about the liars in the financial “news” media who twist the facts to suit whatever their point happens to be that day. Here are the facts about bank lending in the US.