Let’s Get Real- Manufacturing Didn’t Suck But Construction Spending Did

Real Construction Spending- Click to enlarge

By now you have heard of the great news on factory orders and construction spending in July. Construction spending beat consensus expectations. The pundits had expected a 1% increase on the seasonally finagled headline number for construction and got 1.8%. The headline seasonally adjusted July increase in factory orders was a whopping 10.5%. Wall Street…

The Real Force Behind US Economic “Growth,” Such As It Is, Is Not The Fed

Industrial Production - Click to enlarge

As the stock market has scooted off into Fed driven bubble territory over the past year, industrial production, on the surface at least, appears to be expanding quite nicely. After briefly going negative in mid 2013, the annual growth rate turned upward and has been accelerating, reaching 4.3% in July. This measure is by units…

Record Low Initial Unemployment Claims Correlate With Looming Stock Market Collapses

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Contrary to conventional wisdom, extremely low initial unemployment claims have an ominous track record. Since the initial unemployment claims data first set a record low in September 2013, I have pointed out that record low claims suggest a distorted, overheated, bubble top economy. On each occasion over the past 42 years when claims have reached a…

Loan Liars

No, this isn’t about liar loans. It’s about the liars in the financial “news” media who twist the facts to suit whatever their point happens to be that day. Here are the facts about bank lending in the US.

Initial Unemployment Claims Deteriorate, Flashing Warning Signal

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

The string of record low initial unemployment claims which began last September may have ended this week. After nearly 11 months at extremes that have only existed before at the top of the internet/tech bubble in 1999-2000 and the housing bubble top in 2006-07, initial claims backed off slightly. The question is whether this is just a temporary…