Economics

Here Are Three Big Reasons You Should Feud With The NAHB Homebuilders Housing Market Index

How Survivorship Bias Infects The NAHB Survey- Click to enlarge

The Wall Street Journal reported today that: U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Near-Decade High “An index of builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes rose one point to a seasonally adjusted level of 61 in August, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. A reading over 50 means most builders generally see conditions…

Here’s What You Need to Know About Industrial Production That Big Media Didn’t Tell You

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U.S. Industrial Production Ratchets Up in July trumpeted the Wall Street Journal on Friday. It added that, “Industrial production, a measure of output in the manufacturing, utilities and mining sectors, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in July from June, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It was the largest gain since November and the second straight…

State By State Initial Unemployment Claims Weaken Slightly

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I look at an analysis of individual state claims as a kind of advance decline line for confirmation of the trend in the total numbers. The states report the data to the Department of Labor, which accumulates the data into its weekly national report. It’s also interesting to see how the big oil states are…

Initial Claims Send Longest Bubble Peak Warning In History

Historical Initial Claims and Bubbles

Actual initial unemployment claims counted by the 50 states totaled 239,899 last week, which is another record low for this calendar week. It continues a nearly uninterrupted string of record lows that began in September 2013. We have been able to see and track this trend because we focus on the trend of the actual data instead…

This Chart Shows How The Fed Fiddles On Inflation While The Middle Class Burns

CPI, PCE and Reality- Click to enlarge

There are a lot of ways to define “inflation.” There are a lot of ways to measure “inflation.” Economists, the Fed, and Wall Street define “inflation” to apply only to consumption goods, things we actually use and consume. Hence the name “Consumer Price Index.” The purpose of the CPI was never really to measure “inflation” however.…

Here’s The Bad News That Nobody Is Telling You About The Record Lows In Initial Unemployment Claims

Employers Late To The 1973 Funeral - Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 267,000. The Wall Street economist crowd consensus guess close to the mark this week, at 272,000. We focus on the trend of the actual data Instead of the seasonally manipulated headline number expectations game. Facts tend to be more useful than the economic establishment’s…

Fed Is Not Just Behind The Curve, It’s Driving The Bus Over The Cliff

Actual Rent Versus Owner's Equivalent Rent- Click to enlarge

So the Fed didn’t raise rates again. And the timing of the rate increase will be data dependent. Ho hum. There’s just one little problem. The inflation measures the Fed watches really don’t measure inflation. The Fed won’t see what its cronies in the government and economic establishment refuse to measure, which is that we’ve already long since passed…

Case Shiller Is Too Slow- Here’s The Real (e)State of The US Housing Market Right Now

MLS Contract Prices- 55 Metros

The mainstream media reported the Case Shiller Index for “May.” I put that in quotes because the data does not represent the actual state of the market in May. Case Shiller represents the 3 month average price of repeat sales (not all sales, just houses that had sold previously) which were recorded by county agencies…