Economics

Initial Claims Breadth Index Nears Bearish Breakout

An analysis of individual state claims serves as a kind of advance decline line for confirmation of the trend in the total numbers. The states report the data to the Department of Labor, which accumulates the data into its weekly national report. It’s also interesting to see how the big oil states are doing. Since…

Initial Claims Signal End of Bubble – May Cause Really Stupid, Futile Gesture on Fed’s Part

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change

A 2 year string of record lows in initial unemployment claims finally appears to be ending. First time claims in the September 5 week were not materially lower than last year, and were actually slightly above the first week in the record setting string which began in September 2013. From then until now almost every…

Still No Recession Signal In Initial Claims Advance Decline Line (Breadth Index)

Capture

I look at an analysis of individual state claims as a kind of advance decline line for confirmation of the trend in the total numbers. The states report the data to the Department of Labor, which accumulates the data into its weekly national report. It’s also interesting to see how the big oil states are…

Initial Claims Show Employers Are Still Asleep So Payrolls Should Beat Consensus

Initial Claims and Stock Prices

The stock market broke, but initial claims are still at record levels. This is how it has historically works as bubbles start to deflate. Employers are the last to get the news. But the very fact of their record long term ebullience was warning enough, as I have repeatedly chronicled here over the past year.…

With New Data Showing Housing Sales Slowing Here’s Why You’ll Want To Be In Cash

Housing Sales and Inventory

NAR data on housing sales showed the largest July decline since 2011, cutting the annual sales volume growth rate by 47% since March. However, while the growth rate is slowing, total sales volume was the heaviest for July since the peak of the housing bubble in 2005. Heavy but declining volume is a warning sign that…

Low Rates, Low Inventory, and Raging Inflation Create The Fed’s No Win Housing Situation

Record Low Inventory To Sales Ratio

The NAR reported that the median US existing home sale price for sales that settled in July was $234,000, which puts the annual inflation rate for house prices at 5.6%. That’s softer than the June closed sale price inflation rate of 6.5% but still way above what the BLS is recognizing for the housing inflation component…

Here’s Proof That Core CPI Is Really +3%, Not +1.8%

Undermeasurement of Rent Increases Grows

The BLS reported today that Owners Equivalent Rent, a fictitious input to the CPI which, with the similarly formulated lesser item rent of primary residence accounts for nearly 32% of the total weight in the index, rose by 3% between July 2014 and July 2015, including a seasonally adjusted, fictitious +0.3% month to month in June. The BLS…