Economics

Jobless Claims Off The Charts as Bubble Sectors Hoard Workers

Initial Claims Inverted and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 276,000. The Wall Street economist crowd consensus guess was 280,000. Rather than play the expectations game on the seasonally manipulated headline number, we focus on the actual trend based on the actual data. Actual claims were 230,055, which is another record low…

Construction Spending Really Bad, But With Good Reason

Real Construction Spending- Click to enlarge

According to Bloomberg, “Construction spending increased by 2.2 percent in April, the Census Bureau reported, more than the 0.8 percent gain expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.” That “positive surprise” was good for a rally in stocks and a selloff in Treasuries. Wall Street’s bull strategists were braying about it. Do bulls bray, or is that…

Jobless Claims Stay At Bubble Record Pace

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 282,000 on Thursday. The Wall Street economist crowd consensus guess was 274,000. We’re not interested in the expectations game. Instead, we focus on the actual trend. Actual claims were 251,435, which is another record low for the week. The actual weekly…

Here’s How Bernanke’s Bubble Trickle Down Is Working For US Manufacturers

Real Core Capital Goods Orders- Click to enlarge

Core capital goods orders, adjusted by the PPI to reflect the actual volume of orders over time, fell 1% year to year in April. We know that the BLS is understating the inflation rate, so the actual trend is probably worse than this. But this is bad enough. The recent “recovery” may be beginning the next down cycle…

Initial Claims Maintain Bubble Record Levels Pushing Fed To Take Action on Rates

Record Low Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 274,000 on Thursday. The Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess was 270,000. We’re not interested in the expectations game. Instead, we focus on the actual trend. The actual weekly totals first set an all time record low in September 2013. That…

The Stock Market Is The Economy, So…

The Stock Market Is The Economy- Click to enlarge

The Fed’s Industrial Production (IP) Index slowed dramatically in April. It weakened enough to decisively break the uptrend in force since 2011, when the trend growth rate slowed from the bungee rebound of 2010. The Fed says that this index measures the output of the nation’s factories, farms, and “utilities.” The inclusion of “utilities” is important. While…