Economics

Ominous Portents in Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment Long Term- Click to enlarge

While the media focuses on the meaningless short term squiggles in consumer confidence indicators, I like to look at the long term trend. I like it because US consumers in the aggregate are far better forecasters of markets and the US economy than are the professional economic and financial pundits who are so focused on…

Initial Claims Below Record Lows Of Housing Bubble Show Economic Distortion, Overheating

Initial Unemployment Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

Initial claims for unemployment are below bubble record levels after first reaching that extreme in September of last year. The warning signs of a distorted, maladjusted, overheated economy continue. The headline, seasonally adjusted (not actual) number for initial unemployment claims for the week ended July 12,  the 27th week of the year, was 302,000, which was 11,000…

Industrial Production Surge Looks Like 2007 Just Before Economy Collapsed

Industrial Production, The Fed, and The Stock Market - Click to enlarge

The headline number on Industrial Production “missed” today, coming in at a seasonally adjusted gain of 0.2% versus the economic consensus guess of 0.4%. But is that accurate and does it matter? The Fed’s actual, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Industrial Production Index was up 2.8% in June versus May. That’s a completely average performance for June,…

Escape Velocity? As Good As It Gets? Or A Dangerous Economic Extreme?

JOLTS At Record Extreme- Click to enlarge

Initial claims for unemployment remain near bubble record levels after first reaching that extreme in September of last year. The warning signs of a distorted, maladjusted, overheated economy continue. The headline, seasonally adjusted (not actual) number for initial unemployment claims for the week ended July 5,  the 26th week of the year, was 304,000. The consensus…

How The US Government Deliberately and Systematically Understates Inflation

Untitled

The US Government has been deliberately and systematically understating inflation since 1983. This video shows how the BLS does it. This is a segment from the June 27 Radio Free Wall Street video for subscribers. The remainder of the program discusses why July could be rocky for stocks, and why real time data Federal tax…