Economics

Case Shiller Is Too Slow- Here’s The Real (e)State of The US Housing Market Right Now

MLS Contract Prices- 55 Metros

The mainstream media reported the Case Shiller Index for “May.” I put that in quotes because the data does not represent the actual state of the market in May. Case Shiller represents the 3 month average price of repeat sales (not all sales, just houses that had sold previously) which were recorded by county agencies…

The What’s Wrong With This Picture Chart of the Month – Durable Goods

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise 3.4% in June blared the Wall Street Journal headline this morning. As usual, not only is that not the whole story, it’s misleading. It’s wrong. It’s dumb. It raises the question of why the mainstream media adamantly refuses to report the facts. More importantly, why do they ignore the blatantly…

Here Are The Facts That Show New Homes Sales Are Actually a Bust And ZIRP A Failure

New House Sales By Region- Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted (SA) headline number for the monthly-error-times-12-annualized version of new home sales in June was 482,000. Wall Street analysts had guessed that the number would be 550,000. The Wall Street Journal went into apoplectic excuse-making mode, almost foaming at the mouth to try to find pundits to explain away the bad number. The…

Here’s Why Initial Claims Show That This Time Really Is Different

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Initial claims for unemployment compensation extended the string of record lows into its 22nd month this week. The mainstream media is reporting this as if the record low is something new. That’s because they look at the seasonally adjusted (SA) fictitious data only. The actual, not seasonally finagled number has been at a record low relative…

Mouthpiece Of The Mob Says Existing Home Sales Are All Good News

Home Sale Prices and Volume - Click to enlarge

The media dutifully reported the NAR’s version of seasonally adjusted, built-in monthly error times 12, annualized, officially recorded, home sales closings in June today. The housing industry cartel and lobbying behemoth said that houses are selling at an annual rate of 5,340,000 on that basis. Bloomberg enthused that, “Sales of previously owned U.S. homes climbed to an eight-year high in June…

You Need To See How The 1% Spends Wildly While Wall Street Suppresses Retail Sales Reports

Retail Sales Rise As The 1% Spends Its Stock Market Gains - Click to enlarge

Following the mainstream media reports on economic data is a waste of time for investors. It may have some value to traders, because the headlines give them an idea of what to fade. Most of the time any widely reported and widely accepted economic “fact” is almost certain to be wrong. Wizened traders have learned to do the…

Mind Boggling Chart O’ Da Month- Inflation Is Soaring!

Inflation is Worse Than They Say- Click to enlarge

One of my pet themes over the years has been the ridiculous conventional economic definition of inflation that excludes asset prices, an absurdity which the BLS then compounds by suppressing any potential echoes of asset price inflation in the CPI, particularly with housing. It does this by giving the housing component the largest weight in the…