Economics

Here’s How Bernanke’s Bubble Trickle Down Is Working For US Manufacturers

Real Core Capital Goods Orders- Click to enlarge

Core capital goods orders, adjusted by the PPI to reflect the actual volume of orders over time, fell 1% year to year in April. We know that the BLS is understating the inflation rate, so the actual trend is probably worse than this. But this is bad enough. The recent “recovery” may be beginning the next down cycle…

Initial Claims Maintain Bubble Record Levels Pushing Fed To Take Action on Rates

Record Low Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 274,000 on Thursday. The Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess was 270,000. We’re not interested in the expectations game. Instead, we focus on the actual trend. The actual weekly totals first set an all time record low in September 2013. That…

The Stock Market Is The Economy, So…

The Stock Market Is The Economy- Click to enlarge

The Fed’s Industrial Production (IP) Index slowed dramatically in April. It weakened enough to decisively break the uptrend in force since 2011, when the trend growth rate slowed from the bungee rebound of 2010. The Fed says that this index measures the output of the nation’s factories, farms, and “utilities.” The inclusion of “utilities” is important. While…

Retail Sales Weren’t Soft

Real Retail Sales Ex Gas- Click to enlarge

Headline writers were falling all over themselves yesterday to get the news out that retail sales were weaker than the Street conomist crowd consensus guess. The stock market soared as trading algos surmised that this meant that the Fed won’t raise rates anytime soon. There’s just one problem. As so often is the case, the…

Record Low Claims Show That Boiling Bubble Economy Will Push Fed Over The Cliff Soon

Record Low Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 264,000, beating the Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess of 285,000. For the second time in 3 weeks the mainstream media headline writers crowed about the 15 year record low. In reality, on the basis of the actual data before…

What’s Wrong With Factory Odors

The US Stock Bull Market Is Not About Manufacturing- Click to enlarge

Factory Orders for March came in at a seasonally adjusted headline number of a 2.1% monthly gain. That was in line with the Street consensus and a rebound from a drop of 0.1% in February. The pundits concluded that this would keep the Fed on track to raise rates this year. I have no quarrel with…