Economics

Initial Claims Celebrate a Year At Record Levels

Initial Claims Per Million Workers- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims of 293,000 surprised Wall Street economists a bit this morning as their consensus guess had been 300,000. The actual, not seasonally finagled numbers, which the Wall Street captured media ignores, shows claims at all time record levels, slightly below the levels reached at the top of…

Overheating Continues As Initial Unemployment Claims Set Another Record Low

Stock Prices and Initial Claims- Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted number for initial unemployment claims of 280,000 left the consensus estimate of Wall Street economists in the dust this morning at 305,000. They had adjusted their sights after last week’s stutter step that suggested slowing. But this week the actual numbers were back on trend. The actual, not seasonally finagled…

Non Farm Payrolls Faux Headline Number Is Misleading

Nonfarm Payrolls- Actual- Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls headline number for jobs added in August was 142,000.  The consensus guesstimate of Wall Street economists had been for a gain of 223,000. Traders took the “miss” as bullish. There’s just one problem. The impression given by the headline number is wrong. The actual, unadjusted jobs count was right on trend.…

Record Low Claims Send Year Long Warning Signal That End Is Nigh

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Extremely low initial unemployment claims have an ominous track record. Record low claims suggest a distorted, overheated, bubble top economy. On both occasions in this century when claims have reached a similar percentage of total nonfarm payrolls at this time of year, the stock market has subsequently collapsed within a few months. The overheating that has been indicated in the…

Let’s Get Real- Manufacturing Didn’t Suck But Construction Spending Did

Real Construction Spending- Click to enlarge

By now you have heard of the great news on factory orders and construction spending in July. Construction spending beat consensus expectations. The pundits had expected a 1% increase on the seasonally finagled headline number for construction and got 1.8%. The headline seasonally adjusted July increase in factory orders was a whopping 10.5%. Wall Street…

The Real Force Behind US Economic “Growth,” Such As It Is, Is Not The Fed

Industrial Production - Click to enlarge

As the stock market has scooted off into Fed driven bubble territory over the past year, industrial production, on the surface at least, appears to be expanding quite nicely. After briefly going negative in mid 2013, the annual growth rate turned upward and has been accelerating, reaching 4.3% in July. This measure is by units…