Sober Look

Argentina running out of options

With Argentina’s private sector in disarray, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s government has been forced to increasingly bail out failing businesses, particularly importers that are critical to Argentina’s stability. The nation’s fiscal …

Watch US inflation expectations


China’s “no stimulus” pledge and falling commodity prices are sending US inflation expectations to multi-year lows. Below is the 5-year inflation expectation indicator (breakeven) implied by inflation-linked treasuries (TIPS).The 5-year real rates in t…

Ukraine on the brink

While we see a great deal of media coverage of Ukraine-related geopolitical risks, there hasn’t been sufficient discussion about the dire economic and fiscal conditions the nation is facing. Writing about men in masks fighting in eastern Ukraine sells far more advertising than covering the nation’s economic activity. However it’s the economy, not the Russian army that has brought Ukraine close to the brink.