Russ Winter

Any good armchair general with a good search engine and time on their hands can figure out in a hurry that the song and dance about Iran being unable to close the Strait if Hormuz for long  is just a plain crock. Worse than a crock. Yet, this big Orwellian lie persists, so once...
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There has been much ado about the US employment numbers both from surveys and the BLS.  Most of this centers around bogus numbers from the BLS, but I prefer to jump to the quick, and look at withholding taxes. Really what difference does it make if there are few hundred thousand new jobs if they are...
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“Unity is the cure to lots of ailments in our country.” -Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei The threat of U.S. military presence and western economic sanctions in itself seems unable to detour Iran from wrapping up its nuclear program. In fact they seem only to raise Iran’s ire even more. Therefore, I see U.S. moves as...
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“In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” – Rudiger Dornbusch Ben Bernanke made some surprisingly frank confessions in his House testimony about Fed portfolio risk. When asked what the effects of a mortgage refi program would be on his...
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In November, Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times wrote a story describing the “voluntary” debt restructuring process that may give clues as to why the latest Greek “deal” can’t seem to be concluded. Once again, a rumor surfaced Wednesday (apparently out of France) that a deal was “hours away.” Sure enough, back when the Morgenson piece came out, the...
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When you hear talk about expanding the European LTRO funding, is is important to go straight to the mechanics of the exercise, and then ask what does the new round of exposure mean to the ECB. The LTRO is a repo transaction where the ECB takes in collateral in order to back any loans. The ECB...
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In 2008 the markets got very worked up with what at the time I was relentless calling a China commodity bubble.  A search under the term “China Bubble” from Winter Watch turns up 75 articles mostly in 2007-2008 and also in 2011. A bubble can be defined as speculative activity not well related to...
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China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.  The strong yen strikes again: Honda decides to build a high-performance hybrid Acura in Ohio – instead of its home nation of Japan. The firm’s continued shift in production to North American capacity signals a wider trend of Japan’s automakers to battle currency-related losses...
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I spotted some interesting commentary on the maturing March 2012 Greek bonds. After buying at 40-45 cents, it seems the hedge funds are trying to unload in a bidless 35-cent market. The ECB has the largest stake, bought at 70 cents. This official holder’s dominance of this market, and refusal so far to  participate in haircuts, is making the...
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ZeroHedge (ZH) has a long winded but remarkable post on the issue of subordination and the motivation of hedge fund holders of non-local bonds to stick up (called blocking) the process and, in fact, go the legal route on debt defaults. ZH cites historical examples of how successful this approach has been. ZH believes these actors will...
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All the discourse about deregulation or regulation is a diversion from the real fact that the vehicles to steal keep being put into place. The criminal oligarchs are going to set the stage through the back door while everybody is talking about Dodd-Frank, consumer regulatory side shows, etc. Since the big banks were not busted up, these side...
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I am going to make my Actionable service plus all archives available until January 10th for those interested in seeing what I’ve been working on.  There is an access user name and password that I can provide if you if e mail me (Russ Winter) di...
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Buddy Roemer is putting on a money bomb to run this classic hit- the- bulls-eye $15,000 ad in New Hampshire.  Please help get this message out,  contribute here what you can, limit is $100. Those who do can contact me at my e mail address visibl...
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The latest bank heist (LTRO)  totaled $641 billion as European banks passed on collateral in exchange for a 3 year, 1% loan.  In return the ECB just was handed a gigantic can of worms. The ECB balance sheet is now up to $3.5 trillion USD and at this point an undetermined amount of PIGGS plus Belgium debt....
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I’m sure some, or many of you have read or are aware of James Rickards’ Currency Wars.  A recent interview with him can be heard here.  I am pretty much in agreement that QE3 is on the way. It may be announced as soon as January or perhaps more likely February. Rickards says to key...
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“Wise man say, you do not invest in overcapacity”-Hugh Hendry China is now in an export hole.  Reuters reports flows are down.   Exports fell in sequence 2% lower in each month in the 4Q.   West Coast ports data comfirms the same trend. November marks six months in a row of YoY declines.  (Calculated Risk along with...
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A chart that few are looking at, explains the concept of the dearth or shrinkage of so called safe collateral in the Euro and USD. The reason is that the Fed and other central banks hold much of it, or it is now encumbered via direct bilateral funding agreements or by sitting at the central bank drawing...
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The latest central banks can save the world rally was astonishing.  All I can say is if, and when it fails, perhaps once and for all this crackpot approach to speculation can go into the dust bin.  Right now it seems to transcend everything including actual solvency. As I’ve said, this rally doesn’t have many...
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“And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth. ‘Who controls the past’ ran the Party slogan, ‘controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.’” “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a...
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It looks like a strident counter-revolution is in play against Occupy Wall Street using police state tactics and propaganda.  In this clip police at UC-Davis  pepper spray sitting protesters like they are so many insects. In Portland, a policeman decides to pepper spray a protester point blank in the face.  Next an absurd lobbying piece from the American Bankster...
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Monday marks two weeks since the news broke that MF Global  “removed” unencumbered segregated funds from customers’ accounts. Segregation simply means that customer deposits can’t be mixed with the firm’s own money or used to cover firm expenses. They must always be available for customers to trade with or withdraw at a moment’s notice. During that time MF Global...
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The market rationale that the Berlusconi toss out is bullish is patently absurd. In reality Berlusconi inherited a sinking debt trap ship, and already ran a decent austerity program for Italy, keeping them in the game for the last few years. He also kept a government together, no small task in Italy. It would be...
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Chaos in the Land of Oz, Part II interview
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My Phil’s Stock World Interview, Chaos in the Land of Oz.
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I have been participating since early on in the Occupy Wall Street movement and have to say that there are a shocking number of fascists and even more false conservatives in this country now. Not just stupid, not just angry, but actual fascists like Ben Stein (read an example of pure nasty evil written for all the world to see), Anne...
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“We won’t come to grips with economies deleveraging by having governments and central banks throwing — literally — even more money at the problem.” - Wolfgang Schaeuble, German finance minister Germany is portrayed as the Great Hope of saving or bailing out other European sovereigns and, in turn, banks. You hear it from the talking heads all the...
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Occupy Wall Street has now gotten the attention of the people who control this country. Accordingly they are rolling out the Ministry of Truth to try and interpret what it is all about.  Immediately the discourse turns to trivial two-party partisanship matters. The remarks are just ridiculous and sickening, including that this is a movement to reinvigorate...
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Mainstream Media is Clueless about Occupy Wall Street.
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700 arrested on Brooklyn Bridge Saturday in Occupy Wall Street Protest. 
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Just like clockwork, the major analysts (like MER) are coming out with their macro calls,  replete with charts  showing the China hard landing story I was telling about six to nine months ago. Only problem is that China, the emerging markets and many commodities are already down 30% or more. Not to be outdone, now...
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