Russ Winter

Web Site: http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter


Rumors and Denials of Rumors

May 23, 2012
Rumors and Denials of Rumors

The market rallied higher once again on more rumors (some kind of unworkable bank deposit scheme: what Europe’s loan-deposit ratios look like), and denials of yesterday’s rumors (L-Pap now says Greece to say in EU, blah, blah).  The second chart shows what’s involved with PIIGS banking deposits.  Using hook theory,  trading rumors is the modus...
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Three Critical Industries Now in Serious Capital Destruction Mode

May 21, 2012
Three Critical Industries Now in Serious Capital Destruction Mode

In the whodathunk department, Reuters is reporting that Chinese buyers are defaulting on deliveries of  iron ore and coal shipments. As I have been reporting for months, ships have been mothballed,  triggering another round of under-reportedbanking losses.  Also reported from China is a 15% drop YoY in property sales, and more importantly it saw a 19% drop...
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California and “Solving Problems”

May 15, 2012
California and “Solving Problems”

American masters of the universe and their toadies give self serving lip service to covering some events in Europe. They are forced to really. But when it comes to the last Ponzi standing,  the US, we see little of the kind.  For example recent est...
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Russ Winter Returns To Precious Metals – Pan American Silver

May 14, 2012
Russ Winter Returns To Precious Metals – Pan American Silver

This post is an example of the actionables available on my subscription site. It this distinct from the Daily Rant pieces seen on Winter Watch. I was an active and successful mining shares investor in the early days of the precious metals bull market. I learned a lot about mining during that period.  ...
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The Mother of All Hooks

May 9, 2012
The Mother of All Hooks

Over the course of my thirty five year investing life I have noticed that markets often trade on hooks. A hook is when most participants develop a preconceived notion about “how things work”.  Then trading follows a pattern, drawing more in.  In the past, hooks were relatively harmless and when they came undone, they had...
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Chorus Against the Fed Bubble and Ministry of Truth Propaganda Gaining Momentum

May 4, 2012
Chorus Against the Fed Bubble and Ministry of Truth Propaganda Gaining Momentum

The chorus against the Fed Bubble continues apace as David Einhorn rips Fed’s jelly donuts policies.  Rick Santelli and Fed apologist Steve Leisman discuss the Einhorn’s statement. These exchanges have gone on for a few years,  except now Leisman really seems to be on the defensive in a crackpot blathering rancid stale bread kind of way.  Next...
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Fed Bubble is Now Common Knowledge: A John Galt Moment?

May 3, 2012
Fed Bubble is Now Common Knowledge: A John Galt Moment?

One of the “elite,” conomist Martin Feldstein was once considered one of the finalists for Greenspan’s spot, before a true sycophant, the Bernank, was appointed.  The rest is history but seems Feldstein is having an Atlas Shrugged, John Galt moment about what has transpired.
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It’s All Good in the Core Countries, Not

May 2, 2012
It’s All Good in the Core Countries, Not

In the days before the May 6th elections in France, key German States, and Greece, the cat fight between   Merkel and the likely new French President Hollande escalates. Talk about the rats abandoning ship, but hey it’s all good. The charts demonstrates in spades the nature of the conflict, as France’s ‘conomy in...
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What the “Bernanke Hall of Mirrors Put” Looks Like in the Real Economy

April 30, 2012
What the “Bernanke Hall of Mirrors Put” Looks Like in the Real Economy

What the “Bernanke Hall of Mirrors Put” Looks Like in the Real Economy (via http://wallstreetexaminer.com) “The world over, governments and central banks are waging war on supply and demand- on the price mechanism.”  - James Grant, interview here starts at 4:30 On the real economy and the hopium hates details front, fuel demand is down,...
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More Highwire Acts

April 20, 2012

My enemy is the world of finance”- Francoise Hollande Perhaps Bloomberg is following my comments, or perhaps everybody is finally connecting the dots on this one: Explosion in Student Debt Drags Down Housing.  Also in the WTF Dept, the SEC takes a ...
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Whales and Market Cornering Attempts

April 19, 2012

“You have to dance while the music is playing”- Chuck Prince, Citigroup mucky muck,  shortly before 2008 crisis Of late Zero Hedge has been mentioning the presence of one large JP Morgan trader nicknamed the whale (Bruno Iksil).  Tuesday ZH broa...
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The Fiscal Cliff

April 18, 2012

Much of the government borrow, spend and transfer largess is scheduled to run off automatically without a major legislative effort to extend them.  In other words, what is now required is going to be a bipartisan effort to deliberately budget anothe...
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Bernanke and Germany Wake Up to a Merda Storm

April 14, 2012

The realization has been shockingly slow, but the lamestream media, such as Bloomberg, is picking up on how toxic the LTRO program has been to the merda-storm countries’ banks. Today, they ran a clip on how Spanish banks borrowed LTRO funds to ...
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Look Like 8% GDP Growth to You?

April 13, 2012

Power generation at the giant utility Huaneng Power in China was  up less than 1% for the Q1.   Two other Chinese electrical giants GD Power and Huadian Power showed a decline of 1.3% and an increase of 6.0% respectively.   Look like 8.1% GDP g...
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Herb Stein’s Law

April 11, 2012

Herb Stein’s Law:  “If it isn’t sustainable, it will end“. Non fuel import prices rose 0.5% in March, once again an indication that the Asia supply chain is getting more costly. My theory is that the loss of cheap Asian supplie...
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The Merda-Storm Countries

April 10, 2012
The Merda-Storm Countries

Italian banks took €265 billion in LTRO 1+2 cash, and Spanish banks a bit over €150 billion.  Portuguese bank dependence on ECB borrowing rose to a record C56 billion   So in total these countries’ insolvent banks have now placed  over €470 billion in merda collateral with the ECB.  A good portion of the capital loss for this...
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A Wipeout in REO Recoveries on Horizon

April 9, 2012
A Wipeout in REO Recoveries on Horizon

Reuters is out with a story about the pipeline of 1.25 million neglected homes that are headed for auction this year. The inference of the article is that these homes will further depress the housing market. I have no quarrel with that observation, but the larger question is the large recovery losses on these properties....
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In a Ministry of Truth World

April 4, 2012
In a Ministry of Truth World

All day, the MSM trolled out all the dynamite talking heads types, saying that a 2-3% correction is healthy, blah, blah  and now the Fed can add stimulus.  All day, you see words like rescue, followed by some lobbyist functionary talking his trade.  This mantra has gone beyond merely obscene and feels like one...
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US Political Economy Breaking Down; is Americans Elect MIA?

April 2, 2012
US Political Economy Breaking Down; is Americans Elect MIA?

The political economy in the US is totally breaking down. This is a real race to the bottom. People are washing their hands of it. Case in point: Key influencer and former Obama ally Oprah Winfrey stated recently that she will not be lending her support to him in the 2012 election. Where is...
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Make Up What Ever Suits Ya

April 1, 2012
Make Up What Ever Suits Ya

True to the pattern of late, markets are trading higher on another completely contradictory report for the algos, this time out of China.  The official PMI index surged to 53.1, an expansionary number, an eleven month high. Meanwhile HSBC reports its PMI number slid to 48.3.   Is this some kind of April Fool’s joke? Here is Chinese electricity consumption, with...
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Stigma, Who’da thunk

March 29, 2012
Stigma, Who’da thunk

“You can make a firewall as high as you want and it will be no help”  -Wolfgang Schäuble, new Eurogroup head, and German Finance Minister It was fun while it lasted but the bloom off the LTRO is now turning into, drum roll please, a liability.   Funny how accounting that recognizes this concept works in...
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Various Distorted, “Unintended” Consequences

March 29, 2012
Various Distorted, “Unintended” Consequences

“Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, up twenty-six consecutive months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $373.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent January increase. Machinery, up twenty-three consecutive months, had the largest increase,...
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More Signs Inflation is Picking Up

March 27, 2012
More Signs Inflation is Picking Up

The consumer confidence index showed expectations for high inflation in the next six months has reached its highest level in six months.  The MIT survey has been updated and shows inflation tilting back up. I really wonder about prices and quality of...
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The Fed’s Painted into a Corner, With a Risky and Long Duration Portfolio

March 26, 2012
The Fed’s Painted into a Corner, With a Risky and Long Duration Portfolio

Two minute Radio Free Wall Street clip. Although the Fed’s Bullard is largely irrelevant as a voting member of the Fed, what he says is not.  He said the central bank is on pause, and more stimulus is not currently warranted. On the balance sheet, Bullard commented that the Fed has taken substantial risks and he...
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Corzine Theft is Going to be the Best Show Since Watergate

March 24, 2012
Corzine Theft is Going to be the Best Show Since Watergate

Finally after five months of investigations comes the Jon Corzine MF Global bombshell Friday .  The Bloomberg article references an e-mail written by Edith O’Brien,  the assistant Treasurer at MF Global and a memo written by congressional staffers. A few aspects are of note:  first that Corzine “gave...
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Even More Evidence of a China Hard Landing

March 23, 2012
Even More Evidence of a China Hard Landing

The latest container shipments into the port of Los Angeles and Long Beach confirm that China (and Asia) is no longer nearly as much in the game. Inbound is down 10% from last year and 20% from the same month in 2007.  I do think a little marginal production has shifted to the US, but it...
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Spanish Matador

March 22, 2012
Spanish Matador

I think the Germans are coming around to the view that Draghi is willing to flush them down the toilet.  From Der Spiegel: There is a rift among top-ranking officials at the ECB, and it also extends between the majority of the ECB’s Governing Council and the Bundesbank. First, two leading German ECB officials — chief...
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True Debt Levels of European Insolvents

March 20, 2012
True Debt Levels of European Insolvents

Here are the true debt exposures of Spain, when all the regional, bank, and “other” guaranteed  debts are included.  In a report issued on 2/29/12 and apparently ignored by everyone including the ratings agencies, Eurostat reports that Spain...
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Getting Ugly in China

March 18, 2012
Getting Ugly in China

I started writing about Chinese imports into the US over ago . Total product imports started noticeably slowing in the second half of 2011 on a year over year basis and in the five year average, hiccuped ba...
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Black Swan Swarms Approach

March 17, 2012
Black Swan Swarms Approach

On Radio Free Wall Street, Lee Adler and I have had lively discussions about market predictors. Lee holds to his work on monetary and technical indicators. Normally that might be the preferred method, but right now something doesn’t pass my smell test. I’ve been saying that the markets, as currently positioned, are extremely vulnerable to...
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