Venezuela’s economic (and political, social, public, etc) woes have been documented with exhaustion, although no one so far has produced a half-meaningful outline of solutions that are feasible and effective at the same time.Take for example, the @IIF …
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Trump-o-rama taking a dip?
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Summarizing the U.S. economic ‘themes’ of the last 21 years:or put differently: 13 years of ‘ugly’, 8 years of ‘euphoric’.Source for the great chart (ex-my annotations): https://www.topdowncharts.com/.
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Still Drowning in Love [for Debt]…
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Debt… Sovereign debt… and Valentines…A decade post-GFC, we are still shedding love to our overly-indebted sovereigns… so nothing can ever go wrong, again…
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Nothing to Worry About for those Fiscally Conservative Republicans
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
H/T to @soberlook:U.S. Federal deficit was up $192 billion y/y in December 2018. Nothing to worry about, as fiscal prudence has been the hallmark of the Republican party policies since… well… since some time back… That, plus think of what f…
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Euro area is sliding toward recession
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Based on the latest data through January 2019, Eurozone’s economic problems are getting worse. In 4Q 2018, Euro area posted real GDP growth of just 0,.2% q/q – matching the print for 3Q 2018. Meanwhile, inflation has fallen from 1.7% in December 2018 t…
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Global Trade Indicators: Tanking
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
There is no reason to panic about global growth. None. None at all…Source: topdowncharts.comNothing to see here. Because, obviously, structurally and statistically lower growth in trade turning negative on foot of Baltic Dry Index literally collapsin…
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The Myth of the Euro: Economic Convergence
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
The last eight years of Euro’s 20 years in existence have been a disaster for the thesis of economic convergence – the idea that the common currency is a necessary condition for delivering economic growth to the ‘peripheral’ euro area economies in the …
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Why limits to AI Trading Systems are VUCA-rich and human-centric
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Why ethics, and proper understanding of VUCA environments (environments characterized by volatility/risk, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) will matter more in the future than they matter even today? Because AI will require human control, and that…
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2019 Outlook
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
My post on economic outlook for 2019 is now available from the Focus Economics: https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/constantin-gurdgiev-thoughts-on-the-global-economy-for-2019
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U.S. Imports Demand and Final Household Consumption
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
A great post from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco blog (https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2019/january/how-much-do-we-spend-on-imports/) showing estimates for total imports content of the U.S. household cons…
