Recent PMIs for BRIC show a weaker start to 3Q 2018, in line with moderating growth outlook for the global economy:In summary, Composite PMIs for July show Russia, China and Brazil underperforming global composite index, with India being the only BRIC …
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Collapsed Labor Share of Economy 1947-2016
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
The frightening fate of the U.S. labor is best highlighted by the share of labor in economic output. Fred database only provides the data through 2014, and then stops. BLS provides data through 3Q 2016, and then stops. No one bothers to measure the con…
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M&A Activity: More Concentration Risk Signals
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
In recent media analysis of the markets, less attention that the rise in shares buybacks has been given to the M&A markets. And there are some interesting observations to be made from the most recent data on these.
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Shares Buybacks: the Evil Symptoms of an Ever More Evil Disease
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Yesterday, I have posted a quite unusual (for my normal arguments) defense of the shares buybacks. Normally, as the readers of this blog know, I see buybacks as a net negative to organic investment. However, that view needs to be anchored to the econom…
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Household Debt and the Cycle
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
So far, lack of huge uplift in household debt in the U.S. has been one positive in the current business cycle. Until, that is, one looks at the underlying figures in relevant comparative. Here is the chart from FactSet on the topic:What does this tell …
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Dynamic patterns in BTCUSD pricing: is there a new down cycle afoot?
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Bitcoin Cycles Analysis in one chart:As the above suggests, BTCUSD dynamics are signalling continued structural pressures on Bitcoin prices and the start of the new double-top down cycle. The Great Unknown remains with the behaviour of the buy-and-hold…
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65 years of profligacy and few more yet to come: U.S. Government Deficits
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
The history and the future of the U.S. Federal Government deficits in one chart:Which shows, amongst other things, thatThe post-2000 regime of deficits has shifted to a completely new trend of massively accelerating excessive spending relative to recei…
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Annotated History of the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Neat summary chart plotting the timeline of the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield.
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Corruption Perceptions: Tax Havens vs U.S. and Ireland
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
The U.S. performance in terms of corruption remains effectively poor.
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Burden Sharing, Reforms and Greece
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
European recovery has been asymmetric
