While the current cycle of declining interest rates has been running for at least 25 years, the most recent iteration of the period has been exceptionally benign.
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Shares Buybacks Hit Diminishing Marginal Returns
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
The S&P 500 Buyback Index has significantly outperformed S&P500 returns since 2008 but something has changed lately.
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Are Younger Americans More Comfortable With a Multipolar World?
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
When it comes to challenging status quo heuristics, the younger generations usually pave the way. The same applies to the heuristics relating to geopolitical environment. While the older generations of Americans appear to be firmly stuck in the comfort…
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When it comes to geopolitical & socio-economic anxiety, Europe’s problem is European
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Europe is a sitting duck for major geopolitical risk, but the U.S. is getting there too:And volatility surrounding the uncertainty measure is also out of line for Europe, both in levels and trends:Just as the Global Financial Crisis in Europe was not&n…
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Bitcoin: Sell-off is a structural break to the downside of the already negative trend
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Bitcoin has suffered a significant drop off in terms of its value against the USD in November. Despite trading within USD6,400-6,500 range through mid-November, on thin volumes, BTC dropped to a low of USD3,685 by November 24, before entering the ‘dead…
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BRIC PMIs for November: A Moderate Pick Up in Growth
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
BRIC PMIs are in, although I am still waiting for Global Composite PMI report to update quarterly series – so stay tuned for more later), and the first thing that is worth noting is that, based on monthly data:Brazil growth momentum has accelerated som…
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Constantine Gurdgiev: Turning Europe into Greece
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
My latest column for the Cayman Financial Review is out, discussing how the lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, not learned by Europe, are creating new ghosts of VUCA across the European financial and economic landscapes: https://www.cayman…
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Bitcoin’s Steady Loss of “Fundamentals”
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Base rate fallacy is one of the key behavioral heuristics or biases in economics and finance, defined as a cognitive error whereby too little (or too much) weight is placed on the base (original) rate of possibility (e.g., the probability of A given B)…
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California Rooftop Solar Mandate: An example of bad groupthink?
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
In recent news, California legislators have done a gimmick-trick that has earned the state loud applause from the environmentally-minded consumers and activists: California Energy Commission (CEC) recently voted 5-0 to add a new provision to the state’…
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Nine in Ten in the Red: Asset Markets YTD Returns Signal Risk Repricing
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
According to a recent research note from the Deutsche Bank, 89% of global macro assets are posting losses on year-to-date basis. This is the highest level of losses in more than a century.Given the scale of financial risk mis-pricing in equities a…
