My article for Business Post from Friday covering ECB’s latest announcements on QE and interest rates: https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/ecbs-shift-gears-presents-another-set-risks-418797.
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U.S. economy: entrepreneurship is not ‘the new thing’ outside Academia
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
These days, every business school on every university campus is sporting a burgeoning post-graduate program in Entrepreneurship. And this trend is driven by the perceived – and often hyped up by the media and by business futurists – rise in entrepreneu…
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Talent vs Luck: Differentiating Success from Failure
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
In their paper, “Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure”, A. Pluchino. A. E. Biondo, A. Rapisarda (25 Feb 2018: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.07068.pdf) tackle the mythology of the “dominant meritocratic paradigm of highly competiti…
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Markets Message Indicator: Ouuuuch… it hurts
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
An interesting chart from the VUCA family, courtesy of @Business:’Markets Message Indicator’, created by Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, takes 5 different data ratios: stock market relative performance co…
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Credit downgrades and the sunny horizons of peak growth
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
The global economy is picking up steam. The U.S. economy is roaring to strength. 2018 is going to be another ‘peak year’. Tax cuts are driving equity valuations up. Corporate balance sheets are getting healthier by a day… and so on.The positivity of …
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Average Tariffs: 2000-2016
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
So how do the world’s largest 50 economies (by size) score when it comes to the average trade tariffs they have in place? Who is the free trade champion? And who is not?Here is the data on top 50 largest global economies (I have aggregated EU members o…
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Secular Stagnations Visit Morgan Stanley
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Morgan Stanley jumps onto the secular stagnations thesis band wagon: http://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/ruchir-sharma-trends-2018 and adds an obvious cross-driver to the equation: monetary policy heading for the end of the Great Liquidity Wash.
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A Traders’ Nightmare: When all Risks Coincide
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Really great analysis of recent volatility spike (early February correction) from the BIS Quarterly:
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Still Printing Their Ways Into Prosperity: The Big Three
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Just a gentle reminder… the QE is still going on, folks…As of mid-March, total assets on BOJ, ECB, PBOC and Fed balancesheets have amounted to USD 20.6 trillion, excluding PBOC – USD 14.9 trillion. In Q4 2017 terms (the latest comparable data for G…
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Drivers of the low labor force participation rate: U.S. data since 2001
by Constantin Gurdgiev •
Why doesn’t U.S. economic expansion ‘feel’ like an economy is at full employment? Because of the low participation rate that has effectively reduced unemployment to superficially low levels without creating sufficient amount of quality jobs to offset t…
