The New York Federal Reserve’s NOWCAST model for GDP growth just downgraded Q2 GDP growth to 1.86%. The latest culprit? The rotten housing starts data from this morning. And we were so hopeful about 3%+ GDP growth in February. Alas, Congress is not going along with Trump’s economic agenda. GDP optimism seems to sink with […]
With the latest hike in their target interest rate, The Fed Funds Target Rate, Yellen and the FOMC have now completed 4 rate hikes since December 2015 (although my friend Chris Whalen claims there will be no more). One reason why Chris Whalen may be right is that The Fed is bucking the headwinds of […]
While the US stock market has been on an unprecedented bull market run (thanks in part to The Federal Reserve), the US housing market has only been on a bull run since February 2012.
Germany’s Deutsche Bank is been trying to reinvent itself … again.
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) released their monthly Market Index reflecting the sentiment of their members. height=”1″/>
The May numbers are in and US Industrial Production YoY rose to 2.2% YoY (although on a MoM basis it remained flat). Notice that as soon as The Fed stopped doing quantitative easing (dotted light blue line where it flattens), industrial production growth started to decline.
As expected, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the FOMC raised The Fed Funds Target rate (upper bound) t0 1.25% from 1%, a 25 basis point increase. The Fed has been following a “more Cowbell” strategy from September 2007 until they started raising The Fed Funds Target rate in December 2015.
on the poor retail sales numbers and lack of inflation, the US Treasury 10 year yield fell around 10 basis points (BPS). The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve slope further slipped even further below 2016
In a prelude to the almost certain rate hike by The Federal Reserve this afternoon, the US CPI Urban Consumers Less Food & Energy YoY fell to 1.7%.
What is the US Treasury to do? They are bound (sort of) by the Statutory Debt Ceiling and a Congress that works together like a mink and chickens. Federal tax receipts have been disappointing and below the Congressional Budget Office’s forecast. And the US Treasury’s cash position has never been the same since the Bush […]