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US House Price Growth Signals “Bubble” As Recession Probability Rises

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

I remember when a Chief Economist at a large Washington DC area housing finance entity said that the definition of a house price bubble is when house price growth exceeds household income growth.  Sounds reasonable. But what that means is that most of the USA is mired in ANOTHER house price bubble.

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According to research from Clever.  national house price growth is exceeding median household income growth. By a substantial margin.

US-income-v-housing-1-nationwide-

Of course, the San Francisco area is an extreme example of a house price bubble.

US-income-v-housing-2-San-Francisco

The Los Angeles area is no bubble-slouch.

US-income-v-housing-2-los-angeles-.png

In contrast, midwestern cities of St Louis and Cincinnati have slight house price bubbles.

US-income-v-housing-2-stlouis-cincinnati

Let’s see how house prices stand up to a recession when it occurs.

2019-07-13_6-19-37

So it looks like the US is on the road again to housing crisis.

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