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Fed’s Measure Says A Recession May Be Around the Corner

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Despite the confidence in recent Fed-speak (aka, jawboning), a downturn that could lead to a recession may be looming, meaning the central bank’s next step very likely will be a rate cut.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity index turned negative in February and has stayed there, with industrial production following suit. The index has accurately predicted a downturn in U.S. economic growth for the past 30 years, 3 of 4 times foreshadowing a recession. It’s also predicted the health of the manufacturing industry, preceding changes in production.

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Bear in mind that the The Chicago Fed National Activity index was negative in 2013/2015. But The Fed has been RAISING rates as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index has slowed.

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Is Ken Snyder the Chairman of the FOMC?

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