My favorite Bloomberg headline of all time is: “Former Fed Chief Yellen Says Rates Could Next Move Up or Down.” Wow, how insightful. But of course, she was refering to The Fed Funds Target rate which she kept at 25 basis points seemingly forever. However, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell could either raise, lower of keep rates constant, depending on the state of economy.
Follow the money. Find the profits!
Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler's Liquidity Trader tracks and shows you the monetary forces that drive markets, like the daily real time Federal Withholding taxes shown in this chart. Follow the money. Find the profits! Try it for 90 days, risk free!
But then again, both the ECB and Bank of Japan are currently at zero (ECB) and below zero (BOJ). The US Fed is headed in a direction that differs from other central banks.
While Powell has been increasing The Fed Funds Target rate AND shrinking The Fed’s balance sheet, Europe is drowning in negative target rates (Eurozone, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark) as is Japan.
But in terms of central bank balance sheets, only the US is shrinking their balance sheet.
As we stand today, the US Treasury yield curve is downward sloping at tenors 1-3 years.
The current implied policy curve for The Fed is declining (meaning Fed Fund rate cuts are implied in 1-3 years.
So, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen thinks rates could go up or down.
Join the conversation and have a little fun at Capitalstool.com. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.