Trade War Hysteria: Where’s The Beef? (VIX, TYVIX, Baltic Dry, Credit Spreads Calm)

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Online Course Notes For Financial Markets and Banking. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The news is constantly abuzz with scary “Trade War!” headlines. But it reminds me of Wendy’s hamburger ads from the early 1980s: “Where’s the beef?”

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Let’s look at the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index).  It is showing no signs of stress.

vixtrade

How about the 10-year Treasury Note volatility index (TYVIX)? Nada.

tyvixtrade.png

Baltic Dry Index? That spiked prior to The Great Recession? Nein.

recbaltoc.png

How about the IG credit spreads? A little stress.

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But other credit spreads (Baa – Treasury 10-year) do not show anything to speak of.

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So, where’s the (trade) beef?

wendys-wheres-the-beef.jpg

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