Trade War Hysteria: Where’s The Beef? (VIX, TYVIX, Baltic Dry, Credit Spreads Calm)

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The news is constantly abuzz with scary “Trade War!” headlines. But it reminds me of Wendy’s hamburger ads from the early 1980s: “Where’s the beef?”

Let’s look at the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index).  It is showing no signs of stress.

vixtrade

How about the 10-year Treasury Note volatility index (TYVIX)? Nada.

tyvixtrade.png

Baltic Dry Index? That spiked prior to The Great Recession? Nein.

recbaltoc.png

How about the IG credit spreads? A little stress.

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But other credit spreads (Baa – Treasury 10-year) do not show anything to speak of.

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So, where’s the (trade) beef?

wendys-wheres-the-beef.jpg

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