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The news is constantly abuzz with scary “Trade War!” headlines. But it reminds me of Wendy’s hamburger ads from the early 1980s: “Where’s the beef?”
Let’s look at the VIX (S&P 500 volatility index). It is showing no signs of stress.
How about the 10-year Treasury Note volatility index (TYVIX)? Nada.
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Baltic Dry Index? That spiked prior to The Great Recession? Nein.
How about the IG credit spreads? A little stress.
But other credit spreads (Baa – Treasury 10-year) do not show anything to speak of.
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