“Underlying Inflation” hottest since July 2006 (3.14%) While Core PCE Prices YoY Still Stuck At 1.6%

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The New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) is the hottest since 2006 at 3.14%.


The FRBNY’s Underlying Inflation Gauge captures sustained movements in inflation from information contained in a broad set of price, real activity, and financial data.

The “prices-only” UIG is only 2.23%. The “prices-only” underlying inflation gauge (UIG) is derived from a large number of disaggregated price series in the consumer price index (CPI) and is closer to core inflation.


Both are higher than Core PCE price YoY which is only 1.6% YoY.


“Say what?!”



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