Initial jobless claims for the week of March 24 fell to 215k, the lowest level since January 1973 and President Richard Nixon.
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices YoY rose to 1.60%, still short of The Fed’s target of 2%. This one measure of “inflation.”
Another measure of core inflation is the Core PCE Deflator YoY. It rose slightly to 1.8%.
Real personal income rose 0.2% in February while real consumer spending was flat (0%).
With higher Core PCE prices YoY and falling initial jobless claims, there is little doubt that The Fed will continue to raise its target Fed Funds rate.
The implied probability of a May FOMC rate hike is 99.3% based on Fed Funds futures data.
The last time initial jobless claims were this low.
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