Between Bitcoin prices surging to nearly $17,000 and oil prices reaching yearly highs, it’s no wonder gold prices have fallen this week. And now the Federal Reserve is set to hike interest rates this week…
According to the CME Group, the probability of a Fed rate hike on Dec. 13 is currently at 90.2%. That’s powering the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has gained nearly 100 basis points in the past week.
These are all formidable headwinds for the gold price.
But there’s light at the end of this tunnel, and the tunnel may be shorter than you think…
Liquidity moves markets!Click here to learn how you can follow the money.
Why the Price of Gold Has Fallen
Before we show you how the Fed’s rate hike decision will move gold prices, here’s a look at last week’s gold price action.
Gold’s start to the last trading week was innocuous. In late Sunday evening trading, gold gave up about $5, then opened a few dollars lower, at $1,273, on Monday, Dec. 4. Slight DXY weakness helped gold as the trading day wore on, and the metal clawed back to close at $1,276.
Urgent: Executive Editor Bill Patalon just saw something on his precious metals charts he’s only seen twice in 20 years. He calls it the “Halley’s Comet of investing” – and it could lead to windfall profits. Read more…
Tuesday punished gold, as the DXY enjoyed a new surge that took it up to 93.45. So gold, which opened at $1,273, quickly sold off to $1,264 by 11:00 a.m., then attracted some bargain hunters. That helped buoy gold prices, which managed to regain $2 from the late-morning low, to close at $1,266.
Wednesday would bring similar action as Tuesday, only milder. Gold opened at $1,266, then ground slowly lower as the DXY peaked at 93.63 around midday. Although the DXY reversed a little, to 93.55 by 5:00 p.m., gold selling pressure continued, and the metal closed at $1,263.
Here’s the U.S. Dollar Index action of the past week.
On Thursday, gold selling intensified, as technical traders saw gold prices below $1,260 as a signal to jump ship.
News that U.S. jobless claims fell by 2,000, to 236,000, supported expectations of a December Fed rate hike. The DXY peaked just before 8:00 a.m. at 93.73, then weakened to 93.55 just after 1:00 p.m., and then reversed higher to 93.75 by 5:00 p.m. That would cause the price of gold to open at $1,256 and rapidly drop to $1,246 by 3:00 p.m., rebounding slightly to $1,247 at 5:00 p.m.
Unless we see any real further weakness in the days ahead – and we may – Thursday may turn out to have been gold’s final sell-off capitulation. At least Friday’s gold price action didn’t pull the metal still lower.
And that was with the DXY, which rose further, spending the early morning hours well above 94. The DXY dropped back to 93.9 around 9:00 a.m., climbing back above 94 around 11:00 a.m., then retreated to 93.9 into late afternoon. Through this, gold opened at $1,248, and with a little movement both up and down, it still closed at that same price.
Now, let’s look at how gold will respond to a new interest rate hike, including our latest gold price prediction…
What a Rate Hike Will Do to Gold Prices
I’ve been warning for some time that a stronger dollar could easily remain a challenge for higher gold prices, but the dollar may have peaked. It’s time for a gold price rally…
Check out how the dollar’s value has been associated with gold prices since June…
Now we need to watch how the dollar behaves and what it does next.
Interestingly, gold peaked just when the DXY bottomed in early September.
Remember, the last two December Fed rate hikes helped the DXY enjoy rallies, but these would turn out to be short-lived. At this point, a rate hike is likely close to completely priced in for the dollar.
From its December 2015 low, gold went on to gain 19% in just two months. And from its December 2016 low, the metal then gained 9% in the following two months. Have a look…
In each of these last two instances, gold bottomed within days of the Fed’s December rate hike. In spite of all the headwinds gold’s had to face over the past years and months, it’s held up surprisingly well.
Consider these comments on Friday by Jason Goepfert, the president of Sundial Capital Research.
“Gold fell below its 200-day average for the first time in more than 6 months this week. It also suffered its worst weekly loss in more than 6 months. Both events have led to mostly positive expectations over the next 2-4 weeks and 6-12 months, especially when they occurred relatively close to each other.”
On that note, gold could be very close to a new rally. If it turns around before or soon after the Fed’s decision on Dec. 13, look for the yellow metal to regain the $1,280-$1,300 range by year’s end, and even $1,350 by February.
About Money Morning: Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.
Disclaimer: © 2017 Money Morning and Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201.
The post How Gold Prices Will Respond to the Coming Fed Rate Hike appeared first on Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable.
Wall Street Examiner Disclosure:Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. I am a contractor for Money Map Press, publisher of Money Morning, Sure Money, and other information products. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. In some cases I receive promotional consideration on a contingent basis, when paid subscriptions result. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. No endorsement of third party content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers.