Waiting For The Other Shoes To Drop

The Fed’s balance sheet and US banking indicators remain in the calm before the storm.

Or to borrow another cliché, we’re waiting for the other shoes to drop. There are two of them. One will be when the Fed commences actual balance sheet reductions. The other will be when Congress raises the debt limit.  Those two events will signal the end of the bull market.

That doesn’t mean that the market will instantly crash. It’s not how bear markets begin. The process takes time, usually many months.

Here are the indicators we’re watching on the Fed’s balance sheet and US banking system that will tell us when the sheet will hit the fan.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also provide analysis and charts for David Stockman's Contra Corner which I developed for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs in the past 44 years, including a stint on Wall Street in both analytical and sales capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I worked as a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. My perspective is not of the Ivory Tower. It is from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches of the industries that I analyze and write about today. 

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