Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysys releaseed their “second” estimate for the first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP), based on more complete data that the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate 0f 0.7% QoQ. The general expectation is for an increase in Q1 GDP to 0.9% QoQ.
This exceeds the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP Forecast as of the end of Q1 2017 of 0.9%.
One reason is that Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures were “upgraded” from 0.3% QoQ to 0.6% QoQ. However, it is the lowest reading on Personal Consumption Expenditure growth since Q4 2009.
The breakdown of Q1 Personal Consumption Expenditures.
Nonresidential structures enjoyed a 28.4% QoQ boost in Q1, the highest growth since 2012. Residential structures also saw the largest growth since 2012 at 13.8%.
Federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment fell 2% QoQ in Q1. Mostly due to a decline in National Defense spending of -3.9% QoQ.
That should make Parks and Recreation’s Ron Swanson happy and Leslie Knope furious.
But The Fed and Janet Yellen should be “happy” given that the updated Q1 GDP growth was an upgrade.
The implied probability of a Fed rate hike at the June 14th FOMC meeting is 100%!
But there is a 9% chance of a rate cut by the July 26 FOMC meeting.
A likely CNBC or Fox Business guest: Economists say there is a 50/50 chance of future rate hikes, but only a 10% chance of that.
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