Despite the price of gold today (Friday, Feb. 3) falling 0.1% to $1,218 this morning, the metal is about to cap off a big weekly gain thanks to the recent craziness in the White House.
In the second week with Donald Trump in the oval office, there’s been no shortage of political events bringing instability and volatility to the markets.
And this is likely just the beginning.
The new president has already signed no less than 19 executive orders, impacting many aspects of Americans’ and non-Americans’ lives.
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Perhaps the most controversial is the temporary ban on people entering the United States from one of seven majority-Muslim nations. This led to large protests, scores of people unexpectedly stuck in foreign and U.S. airports, and the firing of the acting attorney general for defying the travel ban.
Layered on top this were executive orders to build the Mexican border wall, rebuild the military, and reorganize the National and Homeland Security Councils.
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Fears associated with ripped up trade agreements and mounting currency wars have ramped up. These fears are establishing ideal conditions for gold prices as investors seek gold as a safe-haven shelter.
Topping things off, the U.S. Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged. Its comments on the economic outlook lacked clarity, but it did highlight rising price pressures.
All of this helped push the gold price to a two-and-a-half-month high, with the near term still looking quite bullish.
Here’s why gold prices are up this week. Then, we’ll give you our gold price prediction for 2017, which indicates more gains ahead…
Why the Price of Gold Today Is Down from Its 11-Week High
The gold price spent Friday, Jan. 27, on a quiet note. It opened at $1,182 and gained slightly to close that week at $1,191.
On Monday, Jan. 30, the price of gold opened at $1,191 and climbed gradually through the day to close at $1,195 for a 0.3% gain. The price was lifted by weak global markets and news that President Trump had fired the acting attorney general for refusing to support his immigration ban. Air started coming out of stocks as the Dow Jones closed back below 20,000.
But the big gains came on Tuesday as the Trump effect kicked in even stronger. The new president talked down the U.S. dollar, saying a weaker currency would help U.S. trade with other nations. Indeed, the dollar has been on a clear downward trend since peaking at 103.82 in early January…
Trump’s comments pushed the gold price 1.3% higher on Tuesday to close at $1,211.
On Wednesday, Feb. 1, the price of gold fell to $1,203 by late morning. However, it bounced back to $1,210 and only logged a slight 0.1% loss on the day.
The wild political roller coaster continued on Thursday, pushing gold prices up to $1,225 before 9 a.m. It retreated from there as the dollar enjoyed a mild rally, but still managed to settle 0.7% higher at $1,219. This was the highest close for an active gold futures contract since Nov. 17.
But the price of gold today has slightly retreated from that two-and-a-half-month high. As of 10:05 a.m. today (Friday, Feb. 3), it’s down 0.1% to $1,218. That puts gold prices on track for a weekly gain of 2.3% from last Friday’s close.
As Trump seems intent on continuing to shake things up, gold prices are poised to benefit from the volatility.
That’s why we see gold hitting this price target by the end of the year…
Price of Gold Today Falls, but It’ll Hit This Target by the End of 2017
Right now, I expect the gold price to continue its recent gains and rise another 15% to $1,400 by the end of the year.
Gold prices already had a great month of January and are up 5.5% in 2017. January was the metal’s best month since June 2016.
The price of gold has also been acting well on a technical level…
Last week, I told you to watch carefully how gold acted as it approached its 50-day moving average around $1,180. As you can see, it did that, but it bounced higher before even touching that level…
And after its late January pullback, the gold price has managed to demonstrate bullish price action. It’s up 2.3% from a low of $1,191 on Jan. 27.
Still, some call gold expensive, saying it’s 50% above its all-time 1980 high. My answer is there’s been a lot of inflation since then, so that’s not a useful measure.
If we compare the price of gold to stocks, the picture’s quite different.
Here’s a chart that values the S&P 500 in gold grams going back to 1950…
Between 1970 and 1980, the S&P 500 became cheaper in gold terms, with a reprieve between 1974 and 1976. I think we’ve seen that same thing happen this time around, except it has lasted longer.
The amount of gold needed to buy the S&P 500 between 2011 and 2015 rose, but like in the mid-1970s, this counter-trend seems to have topped out. Right now, gold’s looking cheap in terms of stocks.
I think gold could make a run for $1,280 over the next couple of months. After that, it could push well higher towards $1,400 later this year.
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