This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.
With this list of manifestations in hand, we can practically write the headlines for 2017-2025 in advance.
How would you describe the social mood of the nation and world? Would anti-Establishment, anti-status quo, and anti-globalization be a good start? How about choking on fast-rising debt? Would stagnant growth, stagnant wages be a fair description? Or how about rising wealth/income inequality? Wouldn’t rising disunity and political polarization be accurate?
These are all characteristics of the long-wave social-economic cycle that is entering the disintegrative (winter) phase. Souring social mood, loss of purchasing power, stagnating wages, rising inequality, devaluing currencies, rising debt, political polarization and elite disunity are all manifestations of this phase.
Based on the history painstakingly assembled by Fischer and Turchin we can anticipate:
— Ever higher prices for what I call the FEW Essentials: food, energy and water.
— Ever larger government deficits which end in bankruptcy/repudiation of debts/new issue of currency.
— Rising property/violent crime and illegitimacy.
— Rising interest rates (until very recently this was considered “impossible”).
— Rising income inequality in favor of capital over labor.
— Continued debasement of the currency.
— Rising volatility of prices.
— Rising political unrest and turmoil (see “Revolution”).
With this list of manifestations in hand, we can practically write the headlines for 2017-2025 in advance.
Gordon Long and discuss these overlapping/ reinforcing social, political and economic cycles in a new video Cycles: Anti-Globalization and the Debt Super-Cycle. Here is a chart from the program that displays the rise of political polarization:
As for rising wealth/income inequality, the apex controls the money and thus the power:
Gordon and I also discuss the many different cyclical analyses that are now overlapping. Cyclical analyses based on demographics, socionomics, debt, wages and prices are all issuing the same conclusion: we’re in the Disintegrative Winter phase of a multi-decade socio-economic cycle.
Here’s our discussion of Cycles: Anti-Globalization and the Debt Super Cycle (30 minutes):
For what it’s worth, my copy editor reckons Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition) is my best book. It is, if nothing else, highly relevant to today’s economic/social schisms.
Join the conversation and have a little fun at Capitalstool.com. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
Al G. Greenspewman says, " Cut through the Wall Street BS." Get Lee Adler's daily thoughts on the markets with no punches pulled. Plus insightful posts from a few other straight shooters like Constantine Gurdgiev, Charles Hugh Smith, Doug Noland, Tim Knight, and Sven Henrich.
Get Wall Street, unspun! Join now!
Check your inbox for the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not there, check your SPAM folder and be sure to whitelist the "From: Lee Adler" email address. Your information will *never* be shared or sold to a 3rd party.
Discover more from The Wall Street Examiner
Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.