The TBAC is a committee of Primary Dealers tasked by the Fed to provide it with a quarterly forecast of how much Treasury debt will be needed to cover the deficit for the current and next quarters. It has persistently overestimated the strength of the US economy and government tax collections this year. Treasury supply has therefore consistently run above forecast. That may have helped to put a lid on the bull markets in bonds and stocks in recent months, but what comes next?
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